University of California Transportation Center: Grants and Administration

2007-2008 (Year 20)

Faculty Research:

The following projects, submitted by faculty members of the University of California, were evaluated and selected for funding based on a peer review process.

Traffic Congestion: Quantifying the Real World Impact on Greenhouse Gases

Principal Investigator:
Matthew Barth
UC Riverside
Email: barth@ee.ucr.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: A great deal of attention is now being applied to greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2) as a major contributor to global climate change. It is estimated that transportation as a whole accounts for 33% of U.S. CO2 emissions, of which 80% are from cars and trucks traveling on our roadway system. Policy makers are pushing for more efficient vehicles as well as alternative fuels to help reduce CO2. However, less attention has been placed on reducing traffic congestion as another means of CO2 mitigation. Using a large vehicle activity data set and a suite of modeling tools, it is proposed herein to carry out a comprehensive study on the impacts traffic congestion has on greenhouse gas emissions. This project will take advantage of a recently initiated vehicle activity data collection program (sponsored by the California Air Resources Board) and emissions modeling tools that have previously been developed by the principal investigator. The vehicle activity data set will be stratified by different roadway facility types and different levels of service (LOS); subsequently, these vehicle activity patterns will be applied to the emission models, providing greenhouse gas estimates. These results can then be used to quantify the CO2 impacts of various congestion mitigation programs.

Key Words: greenhouse gas emissions, traffic congestion, energy, and vehicle emissions impact analysis

Objective: The overall research objective is to accurately estimate traffic congestion impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate different congestion mitigation programs.

Tasks:

Task 1: Collecting and Organizing Vehicle Activity Data;
Task 2: Emissions Modeling;
Task 3: Developing Relationships between Traffic Congestion and CO2 Emission;
Task 4: Scenario Analysis;
Task 5: Reporting.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date August 1, 2007, end July 31, 2008

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge.

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: Policy makers will have accurate estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from traffic congestion, allowing them to prioritize congestion mitigation and related programs.

Direct Cost: $41,510

Immigrants and Travel Behavior: Effect of Ethnic Neighborhoods on Commute Time and Mode

Principal Investigator:
Evelyn Blumenberg
UC Los Angeles
Email:
eblumenb@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Immigrants comprise a large and growing percentage of the population yet we know very little about their travel patterns particularly as they relate to residential location. This study, therefore, examines the travel of immigrants focusing on the relationship between immigrant enclaves and travel behavior. More specifically, the study relies on census tract and micro data from the U.S. Census to test whether immigrants living in ethnic neighborhoods travel shorter distances and are more likely to use alternative travel modes (carpool, transit, walk) than other immigrants. The findings from this study will help us better understand the travel of immigrants. Moreover, they will have implications for understanding the impact of land use on travel behavior and provide insight into the relative roles of acculturation, residential location, and economic status in shaping outcomes for immigrant families.

Key Words: demographics, travel behavior, immigrants, ethnic neighborhoods.

Objective: Examine the travel behavior of immigrants in Los Angeles and New York focusing particularly on the relationship between immigrant neighborhoods and commute mode and time.

Tasks:

Task 1: Apply for use of confidential census-tract identifiers for the Los Angeles and New York Public Use Microdata Samples;
Task 2: Identify major ethnic enclaves in Los Angeles and New York using census-tract level data;
Task 3: Analyze the aggregate, census-tract-level data;
Task 4: Link the Public Use Microdata to the census-tract level; we will attach a geographic identifier to each individual that identifies whether they reside in an ethnic neighborhood;
Task 5: Use the micro-data to analyze the travel behavior (commute mode choice and commute travel time) of immigrants, focusing on the role of ethnic enclaves in predicting each outcome measures;
Task 6: Prepare journal articles and present findings.

Potential Benefits: The proposed study will help us to better understand the mobility of a particular group of people – immigrants. Further, the study will have implications for understanding the impact of land use on travel behavior. Urban planners have been promoting mixed-use developments as one component of a broader sustainable development strategy. If home-work distances in immigrant enclaves are shorter than in other neighborhoods, ethnic enclaves may serve as a model for successful and sustainable urban development. Finally, the study will also provide insight into the relative roles of acculturation, residential location, and economic status in shaping outcomes for immigrant families.

Direct Cost: $53,371

Near Source Modeling of Transportation Emissions in Built Environments Surrounding Major Arterials

Principal Investigators:
Marlon Boarnet
Rufus Edwards
UC Irvine
Email:
mgboarne@uci.edu
edwardsr@uci.edu

Marko Princevac
UC Riverside
Email: marko@engr.ucr.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Though much of the research on the environmental health effects of vehicular emissions has been around freeways, there is reason to suspect arterials as a major source of risk. Especially considering present-day trends of infill development, patterns of built form around arterials may trap elevated concentrations of air pollutants (e.g., street canyons created by multi-storey condominiums and office buildings) in close proximity to residences. Bringing together expertise in transportation and land use planning and environmental modeling, the research team proposes an unprecedented analysis of the environmental impacts of major arterials. Using a fine-scale wind field and dispersion model (Quick Urban and Industrial Complex), the team will simulate the transport of vehicular particulates (1 and 2.5 micron diameter) around five heavily-traveled Southern California arterials chosen to correspond to five land use types. The model is able to account for the effects of the micro-environment (i.e., built form and other infrastructure) on pollutant transport. The field-calibrated model will then be used to simulate the effects of: (i) alternative land development strategies (e.g., varying building height and setback requirements, infill patterns, zoning) and (ii) alternative transport policies (e.g., idling time reduction, stoplight synchronization, truck traffic scheduling and rerouting). The research will enable us to assess the urgency of incorporating arterials into the environmental planning programs of resource, land use, and transportation agencies, and will provide a method for doing so.

Key Words: particulate emissions, transportation, health impacts, arterials.

Objective: We will develop, field test, and apply a modeling method for understanding how traffic patterns and the built environment concentrate fine particulates (PM1.0) on a block-by-block basis near major arterials within urban areas, and provide policy recommendations based on the insights from the modeling method.

Tasks:

Task 1: Select five arterials;
Task 2: Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) computer model setup, including representations of the built environment from five selected arterials;
Task 3: QUIC model runs;
Task 4: Fluid chamber setup including representation of built environment from five selected arterials;
Task 5: Caline4 model setup for background emissions modeling;
Task 6: Caline4 runs;
Task 7: QUIC-Caline integrations for computer simulation of particulate dispersion near five arterials;
Task 8: Field measurements of particulate concentrations at five arterials;
Task 9: QUIC model validation from comparison of laboratory (fluid chamber) and field measurements with initial QUIC model runs;
Task 10: validated (and re-calibrated) QUIC model runs;
Task 11: Policy simulations;
Task 12: Report writing.

Potential Benefits: This research will examine an overlooked source of transportation-related health risk, fine particulate emissions along major arterials, developing a modeling method and examining land use and policy implications that will give insight into how development patterns and transportation policies can be adapted to reduce particulate concentrations that might otherwise arise as urban areas grow denser.

Direct Cost: $113,540

Are TODs Over-Parked? Exploring Housing, Neighborhood, and Environmental Impacts

Principal Investigator:
Robert Cervero
UC Berkeley
Email: robertc@berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Recent studies on car ownership levels and vehicle trip generation rates suggest that many large-scale housing projects near urban rail stations are “over-parked” – more parking is provided than is needed. This can drive up the cost of housing, consume valuable land near transit stops, and impose such environmental costs as increased impervious surface area. Part of the blame for the over-supply of parking in transit-oriented developments (TODs) could be the reliance on ITE parking generation figures. This research compares actual parking demand with parking supplies and ITE rates for 20 large-scale multi-family housing projects in four rail-served metropolitan areas: Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C. The impacts of over-supplying parking on housing affordability, project profitability, land consumption, environmental pollution, travel demand, and other areas will be explored. This will be supplemented by case studies on the evolution of zoning and building codes in TODs, including their rationales, institutional and political contexts, influences on TOD planning and designs, and views of local residents. Based on both quantitative and qualitative results, possibilities for various reforms – such as transit eco-pass substitutions, unbundling parking and housing provisions/costing, flexible parking codes, and near-site carsharing – will be examined.

Key Words: Transit-oriented development; parking supplies; housing affordability; zoning standards; environmental impacts

Objective: Clarify the potential full-range of costs of excessive parking requirements of U.S. TODs with an eye toward promoting reforms, such as flexible parking codes and provisions of eco-pass options.

Tasks:

Task 1: Review literature;
Task 2: Measure parking generation rates for 20 transit-based housing projects;
Task 3: Compare rates to parking supplies and ITE parking generation rates;
Task 4: Using secondary data sources, estimate impacts on housing affordability, development profitability, land consumption, impervious surface area (and impacts on water quality and heat island effects), land-use separation, and walking/travel activities;
Task 5: Conduct case studies on the evolution of parking codes and standards for TODs in two metropolitan areas;
Task 6: Interview planners, developers, and residents about their views on parking policies in TODs as well as their receptivity to in-lieu programs (like transit pass substitutions) and other reforms (like carsharing).
Task 7: Prepare working paper report; publish and present peer-reviewed articles.

Potential Benefits: Lower housing costs, higher ridership, reduced land consumption, and environmental/energy savings due to aligning parking supplies more closely with market demand.

Direct Cost: $59,543

Microscopic Analysis of Travel Behavior Change

Principal Investigator:
Kostas Goulias
UC Santa Barbara
Email: goulias@geog.ucsb.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: This project examines person and household behavioral histories over a long period (1989 to 2003) offering a unique opportunity to differentiate individual variation in behavior due to age, period, and cohort membership as well as other person-specific changes (e.g., entry to and exit from the labor force) and household changes (e.g,, entry or exist of household members). Second, it offers a new approach of studying within-household dynamics and the impact events of within-household change have on individual as well as household behavior using latent variables. Third, the substantive analysis of travel behavior offers a comprehensive analysis of human and social (household) behavior in time and space. The most important analytical method in this project is a set of latent variable structural equations models longitudinal data to build trajectories of behavioral change.

Key Words: within-household dynamics, structural equations model, longitudinal data.

Objective: Create a model system that explains travel behavior as a function of change in social and demographic factors and other contextual circumstances.

Tasks:

Task 1: Data Assembly;
Task 2: Data Analysis;
Task 3: Write Report and Papers for Publication.

Potential Benefits: Achieve better understanding of travel behavior to design better travel demand forecasting tools.

Direct Cost: $56,843

Securing Linked Transportation Systems - Strategies for Urban Transportation

Principal Investigator:
Adib Kanafani
UC Berkeley
Email:
kanafani@berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: The security of the transportation system depends on that of any of its components and how they are interlinked. But the securing of each component is oftentimes in the hand of the agency in whose jurisdiction it falls. Literature on reliability and security economics suggests that when security is defined by the weakest link in an interlinked system, then its level is determined by the agent with the lowest benefit-cost ration, and the other agents have the tendency to under-invest or free ride. When security is a function of total effort, then the opposite obtains and the reliability will depend on the agent with the highest benefit-cost ratio. These conditions arise in urban transportation. For example, a transit system represents a weakest link reliability system when considering the stations as points of vulnerability. An airport access system where controls are repeated over numerous stages is a total effort system. This research aims to build models of security for interlinked urban transportation systems and to develop guidelines for investments in security. The question to answer: is it preferable to let each agency operate its own security budget and make its own investment decisions or is this process better centralized?

Key Words: transportation security, investment decision-making, economics of security.

Objective: Develop investment strategies for securing urban transportation systems.

Tasks:

Task 1: Literature Search.
Task 2: Taxonomy of Vulnerabilities.
Task 3: Models of Security Performance.
Task 4: Policy Recommendations.

Potential Benefits: Guidelines for integrating security intro the transportation planning process.

Direct Cost: $54,179

Measuring Travel Behavior of Low-Income Households Using GPS-Enabled Cell Phones; Multimodal Monitoring with Integrated GPS, Diary and Prompted Recall Methods

Principal Investigator:
Paul Ong
UC Los Angeles
Email: pmong@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: The proposed research demonstrates innovative methods for using GPS-enabled cell phones to measure, analyze, and verify highly resolved travel patterns of low-income households for multiple modes and days. Available data suggests the travel of low-income households varies significantly from more affluent households, but our understanding of how low-income residents navigate the urban landscape throughout the day is limited since they are less likely to respond to travel surveys and, when they participate, are more likely to underreport travel. The proposed project addresses these limitations through targeted sampling and the integration of traditional travel diary methods with portable GPS monitoring and follow-up prompted recall interviews to verify patterns revealed in simultaneous diary-GPS monitoring. We will monitor the daily travel of residents of Wilmington and western Long Beach, port-adjacent low-income communities impacted by high levels of congestion and pollution due to goods movement activities. Results will provide valuable insights into the travel routes, modes and patterns of low-income households, will generate data to support improvements to travel and air pollution exposure models, and will shed light on the multi-faceted travel decisions made by residents of port-adjacent communities in the context of economic and environmental constraints and opportunities.

Key Words: travel patterns, low-income households, portable GPS monitoring, travel diary, prompted recall.

Objective: To demonstrate innovative methods for using GPS-enabled cell phones with traditional travel diaries and prompted recall methods to measure, analyze, and verify highly resolved travel patterns of low-income households for multiple modes and days.

Tasks:

Task 1: Study design and pilot testing;
Task 2: Participant recruitment training and monitoring;
Task 3: Post-processing and analysis.

Potential Benefits: The project will provide refined insights on travel behavior of low-income households for transportation policy and models and will support improvements for using portable devices for travel monitoring for multiple modes and days.

Direct Cost: $58,894

Near Source Modeling of Transportation Emissions in Built Environments Surrounding Major Arterials

Principal Investigator:
Marko Princevac
Mitch Boretz
UC Riverside
Email: marko@engr.ucr.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Though much of the research on the environmental health effects of vehicular emissions has been around freeways, there is reason to suspect arterials as a major source of risk. Especially considering present-day trends of infill development, patterns of built form around arterials may trap elevated concentrations of air pollutants (e.g., street canyons created by multi-storey condominiums and office buildings) in close proximity to residences. Bringing together expertise in transportation and land use planning and environmental modeling, the research team proposes an unprecedented analysis of the environmental impacts of major arterials. Using a fine-scale wind field and dispersion model (Quick Urban and Industrial Complex), the team will simulate the transport of vehicular particulates (1 and 2.5 micron diameter) around five heavily-traveled Southern California arterials chosen to correspond to five land use types. The model is able to account for the effects of the micro-environment (i.e., built form and other infrastructure) on pollutant transport. The field-calibrated model will then be used to simulate the effects of: (i) alternative land development strategies (e.g., varying building height and setback requirements, infill patterns, zoning) and (ii) alternative transport policies (e.g., idling time reduction, stoplight synchronization, truck traffic scheduling and rerouting). The research will enable us to assess the urgency of incorporating arterials into the environmental planning programs of resource, land use, and transportation agencies, and will provide a method for doing so.

Key Words: particulate emissions, transportation, health impacts, arterials

Objective: We will develop, field test, and apply a modeling method for understanding how traffic patterns and the built environment concentrate fine particulates (PM1.0) on a block-by-block basis near major arterials within urban areas, and provide policy recommendations based on the insights from the modeling method.

Tasks:

Task 1: Select five arterials;
Task 2: Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) computer model setup, including representations of the built environment from five selected arterials;
Task 3: QUIC model runs;
Task 4: Fluid chamber setup including representation of built environment from five selected arterials;
Task 5: Caline4 model setup for background emissions modeling;
Task 6: Caline4 runs;
Task 7: QUIC-Caline integrations for computer simulation of particulate dispersion near five arterials;
Task 8: Field measurements of particulate concentrations at five arterials;
Task 9: QUIC model validation from comparison of laboratory (fluid chamber) and field measurements with initial QUIC model runs;
Task 10: validated (and re-calibrated) QUIC model runs;
Task 11: Policy simulations;
Task 12: Report writing.

Direct Cost: $57,376

The Personal Travel Assistant (PTA): Measuring the Dynamics of Human Behavior

Principal Investigator:
Will Recker
Rina Dechter
UC Irvine
Email:
wwrecker@uci.edu
dechter@ics.uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: The fundamental research question that will be addressed with the project is whether a simple, continuously collected GPS sequence can be used to accurately measure human behavior. Our proposed research builds upon a personal information device (PTA, Personal Travel Assistant) that we have been developing (in a separate project) that will serve both as a research tool and as a testbed. To learn behaviors given an extended GPS data stream, we propose applying Hybrid Dynamic Mixed Network (HDMN) modeling techniques. We will design and deploy a prototype personal travel assistant system. The working prototype will be deployed for initial testing in the Orange County, California area. In addition to collecting travel information for the initial deployment period, the initial users of the PTA system will be asked questions about their attitudes towards the collection of travel data under various scenarios, and whether they ever used the PTA’s built in privacy guards. We will analyze the collected data to develop detailed models of human behavior, and streamline learning and inference using the baseline HDMN model and the collected travel data, as well as implement algorithms for estimating network demands using PTA data.

Key Words: Bayesian model, human dynamics, travel information system.

Objective: The objective of this research is to develop a real-time longitudinal activity/travel data collection and modeling system that can assist travelers in negotiating unforeseen, detrimental, traffic conditions. A secondary objective is to provide transportation suppliers with a cheap and effective way to measure and predict demand dynamics.

Tasks:

Task 1: We will design and deploy a prototype personal travel assistant system. The working prototype will be deployed for initial testing in the Orange County, California area, ideally recruiting households in the area of UC Irvine’s ATMIS testbed to leverage its advanced infrastructure monitoring capabilities;
Task 2: Field survey. In addition to collecting travel information for the initial deployment period, the initial users of the PTA system will be asked questions about their attitudes towards the collection of travel data under various scenarios, and whether they ever used the PTA’s built in privacy guards;
Task 3: Analyze longitudinal behavior for individuals and households. Analyze the collected data for developing detailed models of human behavior;
Task 4: Streamline learning and inference using the baseline HDMN model and the collected travel data;
Task 5: Implement algorithms for estimating network demands using PTA data.

Potential Benefits: The collection of research tasks to be performed is coalesced around the themes of measuring the dynamics of human behavior using cellular telephone technology, and managing risk and uncertainty for both individual and institutional decision makers in the transportation system by effectively sharing information. While the problem and proposed solution are defined from the top down, the research is structured from the bottom up, starting with the development and deployment of the PTA system to serve as a platform for travel behavior surveys. This system will then be extended to act as an information system that supports travelers in performing their daily activities by providing filtered information about travel conditions that are relevant to the user. Research about how people use such information and how willing they are to share their own behavior will inform the subsequent development of an aggregate travel demand prediction system that transportation system operators can use to better understand the dynamic demand for transport.

Direct Cost: $63,421

Real Option-based Procurement for Transportation Services

Principal Investigator:
Amelia Regan
Jean-Daniel Saphores
UC Irvine
Email:
aregan@uci.edu
saphores@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: This research investigates how to model freight transportation flexibility using the theory of real options (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). In the practice of adopting lean and demand-responsive logistics systems, orders are required to be delivered rapidly, accurately and reliably, even under demand uncertainty. These tougher demands on the industry motivate the need to introduce new instruments to manage transportation service contracts. One possibility, which has begun to attract attention, is to use real options to hedge transportation capacity and cost volatility. To date, no published research has specifically focused on applying real options in the trucking industry even though this is the dominant freight transportation mode. Our research proposes a real option based method of procuring trucking services. Research activities will include: 1) understanding the conditions for the emergence of a market for truckload options based on experiences in other transportation industries; 2) modeling truckload rate dynamics and investigating pricing formulas for truckload options; and 3) collecting data and case studies for selected representative transportation origin-destination pairs.

Key Words: freight transportation flexibility, value at risk, real option, trucking contracting.

Objective: To model freight transportation contract flexibility in the trucking industry using the theory of real options with an emphasis on capacity options.

Tasks:

Task 1: Literature review: An extensive literature review will be performed in two main areas, academe and industries.
Task 2: Pricing model development: This task will include modeling TL rate dynamics, and investigating pricing formula for TL options for different types of options.
Task 3: Data collection: We will purchase data from service providers, collect data from the literature but also request quotes from trucking companies or trucking associations.
Task 4: Case Studies: We will apply the developed pricing model to selected lanes as case studies and analyze the effects of TL options on shippers and carriers.
Task 5: Report writing and paper writing: we will summarize our findings and suggest directions for future research.

Potential Benefits: This research helps to create value from uncertainty, including price and demand uncertainty, through trucking options contracts, which are new to the trucking industry.

Direct Cost: $107,398

Mitigating the Social and Environmental Impacts of Multimodal Freight Transportation Corridor Operations

Principal Investigator:
Stephen Ritchie
Jean-Daniel Saphores
UC Irvine
Email:
s-ritchie@uci.edu
saphores@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract:The San Pedro Bay Ports (SPBP) of Los Angeles and Long Beach in Southern California are one of the major container port complexes in the world: in 2004, for example, the SPBP processed over 36% of the U.S. container trade. However, the SPBP complex is also a major source of air pollution caused largely, on the land-side, by diesel locomotives and trucks that transport containers to and from the ports. The resulting annual health costs may exceed $2.5 billion. Low income and minority communities along the major Alameda corridor, a 20-mile railroad line that connects the SPBP to the transcontinental rail network east of downtown Los Angeles, are particular affected. This study will create a tool that will quantify links between SPBP freight traffic, air pollution, and the health of local communities. This tool will help evaluate the effectiveness of various alternatives (such as congestion pricing to decrease peak container traffic flows, biofuels for trucks and locomotives, or intermodal and route shifting of container traffic) in order to mitigate the environmental and health impacts of SPBP activities. Expected results include new insights into the spatial, socioeconomic, public health, and social justice consequences of alternative SPBP multimodal freight operations strategies.

Key Words: Port, air pollution, air quality, freight, container, corridor, truck, locomotive, simulation, social impact, environmental impact, public health, social justice

Objective: This study seeks to create a tool that will shed light on the links between Alameda Corridor freight traffic from the SPBP, air pollution, and the health of local communities, and in so doing help to evaluate the effectiveness of various alternatives (such as congestion pricing, biofuels for trucks and locomotives, and intermodal and route shifting of container traffic) to mitigate the environmental and health impacts of port activities.

Tasks:

Task 1: Assemble relevant data and code PARAMICS network;
Task 2: Select corridor strategies to be simulated;
Task 3: Run PARAMICS simulations;
Task 4: Assemble emission factors for road and rail traffic;
Task 5: Model the dispersion of criteria pollutants in the corridor;
Task 6: Assemble demographic data and public health impacts;
Task 7: Assess environmental justice implications for corridor population;
Task 8: Write final Summary report and academic papers.

Potential Benefits: The expected benefits include new insights into the spatial, socioeconomic and public health air quality impacts, and thus social justice consequences, of alternative SPBP freight operations strategies in the Alameda corridor, and development of a tool that will be useful for ongoing policy analyses pertaining to this corridor and which could be adapted and/or expanded for analysis of other corridors and strategies.

Direct Cost: $89,869

Modeling the Reliable Transportation Network Design Problems in Case of Disruptions

Principal Investigator:
Zuo-Jun Max Shen
UC Berkeley
Email: shen@ieor.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Classic transportation network design models usually assume that once constructed, the network facilities (e.g., hubs) will always work as expected. In reality, however, these facilities can fail from time to time due to natural disasters, labor actions, terrorist attacks and other factors. Such failures may lead to excessive transportation cost as some customers must be re-routed to other facilities that are further than their regularly assigned ones. We plan to develop mathematical programming models for transportation network design to minimize cost, while also taking into account the expected transportation cost after failures of facilities. Possible results from this project can help the planners to make transportation network design decisions that are both reliable and cost effective.

Key Words: disruption, optimization, reliability.

Objective: To provide optimization tools for the design of reliable and efficient transportation networks.

Tasks:

Task 1: Literature review;
Task 2: Problem formulation;
Task 3: Solution algorithm development;
Task 4: Final report.

Potential Benefits: The results from this research will provide guidelines for planners to make transportation network design decisions that balance the trade-off between the routine operating cost and the failure cost, and that between the operating cost and the service level.

Direct Cost: $55,210

Costs and Effectiveness of Lower-Speed, Environmentally-Friendly Urban Highway Designs

Principal Investigator:
Kenneth Small
UC Irvine
Email: ksmall@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Adding capacity to ameliorate urban road congestion is often thought to be infeasible due to its great expense. This proposal seeks to investigate differentiated design standards as a source of capacity additions that are more affordable and have smaller “footprints,” thus smaller aesthetic and environmental impacts. The research will examine the tradeoff between providing capacity for high-speed off-peak travel, when peak travel is severely congested, versus providing more capacity but only for moderate-speed travel. It will also examine the potential savings in cost and footprint from designing certain roads to be for passenger vehicles only. Thus, the research will show under what conditions lower-speed, environmentally-friendly highway designs are cost-effective. The results will provide guidance for metropolitan transportation planning, in particular guidance concerning the emphasis given to different types of highways for handling anticipated traffic growth.

Key Words: capacity, congestion, highway design.

Objective: Examine conditions under which lower-speed, environmentally-friendly highway designs are cost-effective alternatives to high-speed expressways in crowded urban areas.

Tasks:

Task 1: Collect data on costs, capacities, and accident experience with alternative high-capacity highway designs;
Task 2: Compare costs of specific alternative designs providing a given amount of capacity but at different speeds;
Task 3: Develop an analytical model to measure the total social costs of travel under alternative investment strategies using alternative designs;

Potential Benefits: We may uncover possibilities for building substantial additions to capacity at more affordable costs than those envisioned in current metropolitan transportation plans.

Direct Cost: $29,913

Transportation decision-makers, practitioners, and researchers: differences in the production and use of knowledge

Principal Investigator:
Brian Taylor
UC Los Angeles
Email: btaylor@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact CoCo Briseno, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: This research examines how transportation scholars, practitioners, and policymakers differ in their levels of understanding of and attitudes toward transit costs and fares. We focus on transit fares because the recent and relatively widespread adoption of smartcard technology allows transit agencies to implement fares that vary by distance, time-of-day, and/or mode to reflect differences in marginal costs. Scholars have long argued that fares set to reflect often large variations in transit costs by distance, time-of-day, and/or mode could substantially improve both the efficiency and effectiveness of transit services. Most transit agencies, however, have not moved to implement any form of marginal cost fares. This research uses a survey of a variety of people in transit agencies about their understanding of marginal costs, their basis for fare setting, and whether they have considered using smart cards to move toward marginal cost forms of pricing. We also use in-depth interviews to test for differences among the three groups in their rationales for pricing transit services, and what kinds of information they deem relevant to making fare policy. Our goals are, broadly, to understand how information about transportation costs, prices, and behavior are communicated among different types of transportation professionals. More specifically, we seek to understand how smart cards can be used creatively to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public transit services.

Key Words: transit costs, transit fares, smartcard technology, survey, fare setting, marginal cost forms of pricing, interview, efficiency, effectiveness, public transit.

Objective: This research examines how transportation scholars, practitioners, and policymakers differ in their levels of understanding of transportation-related problems, and how these differences affect information about them is perceived, and solutions to them are devised.

Tasks:

Task 1: Literature review;
Task 2: Survey design and administration;
Task 3: Survey analysis;
Task 4: In-depth interviews;
Task 5: Interview analysis;
Task 6: Production of deliverables.

Potential Benefits: This research will contribute to our understanding of how and why some ideas and policy solutions are accepted and implemented, while others are not; and how different scholars, practitioners, and policymakers approach transportation problems and solutions.

Direct Cost: $54,904

UCTC 2007-2008 Dissertation Grant Abstracts

A Cross-Disciplinary Meta-Analysis of Driver Adaptation to Road Safety Measures

Offer Grembek, UC Berkeley

Advisor: Carlos Daganzo

When safety-improving measures are introduced on highways, some drivers may adapt to the improved safety and take additional risks. Although this phenomenon is well known, there is a lack of theoretical background which can be incorporated into models evaluating the efficacy of road safety measures. Studies to evaluate road safety measures, at best, acknowledge that adaptation might occur, and typically estimate benefits assuming no adaptation whatsoever. In view of all this, improving our understanding of driver adaptation, and to determine if prediction can be improved in a way that would provide benefits to society is our objective. Our basic postulate is that adaptation is inherently human, and also exists in safety-critical tasks other than driving. We thus propose to perform a cross-disciplinary meta-analysis which will combine traffic safety studies with studies of other safety-critical tasks. Characteristics of the different safety measures will be analyzed to identify factors that influence adaptation, and to develop a prediction model. By improving our understanding of adaptation, in this generic way, more effective highway-specific measures may be identified. And this could save lives.

Key words: traffic safety, traffic safety measures, adaptation, meta-analysis

Travel Determinants and Multi-scale Transferability of National Activity Patterns to Create Synthetic Populations

Kriste Henson, UC Santa Barbara

Advisor: Kostas Goulias

Homeland security applications require fine modeling and simulation resolution in time and space to represent human activity and travel behavior. The TRansporation ANalysis SIMulation System (TRANSIMS-LANL), an activity-based transportation modeling system, has the ability to simulate the movements of individuals around a network on a second-by-second basis between parcel-level locations. At the core of TRANSIMS-LANL are “synthetic” schedules which are formulated based on activity/travel diaries. In order to model cities or large regions in a timely manner, a new methodology is proposed that will allow a person’s activity patterns to be “transferred” to another person living in a different geographic location. A Structural Equations Model (SEM) will be developed based on sociodemographic information for survey households in the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and land use, land form, and accessibility measures gathered from several sources of national-level geographic data including Navteq Navstreets and Dunn & Bradstreet business data. The SEM will be used to define lifestyle groupings to describe the NHTS survey households. A synthetic population can be classified based on these lifestyle groupings and matched to survey households utilizing a multiple imputation model. The synthetic household will assume the activity schedule of the corresponding survey household.

Key words: Homeland security, TRansportation ANalysis SIMulation System(TRANSIMS-LANL), Structural Equations Model(SEM), 2001 National Household Travel Survey(NHTS), lifestyle, synthetic population, multiple imputation model.

Mobile Range Sensing Systems for Surface Transportation

Lili Huang, UC Riverside

Advisor: Matthew Barth

With increased travel demand accompanied by limited transportation infrastructure, the collection and analysis of real-time traffic data is critical to help alleviate congestion. To date, most real-time traffic data are acquired through stationary sensors associated with the infrastructure. Real-time traffic data can also be collected by mobile sensing, i.e., through the use of probe vehicles. Most probe vehicles are used to measure travel times across roadway links. However, it is also possible to collect localized traffic information by sensing traffic surrounding the probe vehicles. This project proposal focuses on developing and applying a mobile system consisting of range sensing and computer vision. The system also employs GPS, allowing for spatial and temporal localization which can be matched with infrastructure-based sensing. The GPS also allows for the determination of the probe vehicle’s velocity. As part of this research, range measurements and computer vision imagery are combined through data fusion techniques. The transformation from range sensor data to image coordinates provides three dimensional data of surrounding traffic. Afterwards, this mobile sensing system can estimate the state of other vehicles (e.g., position, orientation, velocity and acceleration) and collects various metadata (object class, headways, and lags).

The vehicle state information can also be used for vehicle activity analysis, from which a drivers’ lane-change behavior and lane-level trajectory prediction model can be derived. Using stochastic analysis, these models are established based on various drivers’ behavior, specific driver’s driving habits, and previous trajectories. The real-time traffic information can also facilitate mesoscale in-vehicle navigation systems, which assists drivers with lane-level driving maneuvers in complicated roadway networks. Finally, the complete mobile sensing system can be employed in designing warning strategies for Advanced Driver Assistant Systems (ADAS).

Key words: Real-time traffic data collection and analysis, mobile sensing systems, sensor fusion, drivers’ activity analysis, mesoscale navigation.

Temporal Considerations in Demand Input for Transportation Planning, Analysis, and Simulation

Klayut Jintanakul, UC Irvine

Advisor: R. Jayakrishnan

Key words:

Accessibility, Travel Behavior, and New Urbanism: Comparative Study of Mixed Use Centers and Auto-Oriented Corridors in the South Bay (Los Angeles) Region

Kenneth Joh, UC Irvine

Advisor: Marlon Boarnet

This dissertation is an empirical study of land use and travel behavior comparing sixteen mixed-use centers and auto-oriented corridors in the South Bay region of Los Angeles County, based on individual travel data collected from the 2005 South Bay Travel Survey. The first part of my dissertation tests the New Urbanist claim that neotraditional urban design promotes more walking trips and discourages automobile trips by regressing individual automobile and walking trips on a vector of sociodemographic and attitudinal variables for mixed-use centers and auto-oriented corridors in the South Bay area. Instrumental variable regressions are also used to control for residential location choice and self-selection bias. The results suggest that individuals residing in mixed-use centers tend to take more walking trips than those residing in auto-oriented corridors while individuals residing in mixed-use centers tend to drive equally as much as individuals residing in auto-oriented corridors. The second part of my dissertation compares individual automobile and walking trips for the South Bay study areas by race and ethnicity and analyzes the interaction between race/ethnicity and ethnic change on driving and walking behavior. The results suggest that African-Americans are less likely to drive and Asians are less likely to walk compared to other racial/ethnic groups; additionally, significant interaction between race/ethnicity and ethnic change were reported for Latinos.

Key words: travel behavior, land use, New Urbanism, accessibility, trip generation, travel forecasting, race and ethnicity, mixed-use centers, auto-oriented corridors.

Observations on Traffic Behaviors in Freeway Weaving Bottlenecks: Empirical Study and Analytical Modeling

Joon Ho Lee, UC Berkeley

Advisor: Michael Cassidy

This dissertation contributes to empirical understanding of traffic details that cause freeway weaving sections to become active bottlenecks and trigger changes in discharge flows. This study found that significant concentration of Freeway-to-Ramp maneuvers near on-ramps activates weaving bottlenecks accompanied with discharge flow reductions. Discharge flows vary in response to mandatory lane-changing patterns. They are, in turn, influenced by traffic conditions such as speeds and densities of weaving sections’ auxiliary lanes, which have been disregarded in previous literature of micro-simulations. As a result, previous models can not reproduce traffic phenomena observed in the present study. The model presented here, on the other hand, successfully replicates the observed phenomena in the weaving sections by improving a mandatory lane-changing component of a micro-simulation. Another contribution of the present study is the analysis of how changes in traffic behavior triggered by bottleneck activations affect collision patterns at weaving sections. Changes in mandatory lane-changing also dictate shifts in collision patterns, most notably increasing collision rates on the left side of freeway during congested periods. Comparison against collision patterns at an on-ramp bottleneck, where increases in collision rates on the right side of freeway are observed, indicates that the observed collision patterns are distinct.

Key words: Bottlenecks, Weaving, Auxiliary lanes, Mandatory lane changes, Freeway collisions, Simulation.

Presentation of Access-Specific Travel Information to Mobility-Impaired Travelers

Andrea Nuernberger, UC Santa Barbara

Advisor: Reginald Golledge

People with mobility impairments, especially those using wheelchairs, depend on accessibility information for successful travel planning. But mainstream travel information is insufficient and available accessibility information sources are inadequate. With the overall goal of working towards a standard for access-specific information design, this dissertation explores the question “How do wheelchair users utilize accessibility information during trip planning, and which information sources are most valuable to them?" To answer this, two methodologies are employed: a national online survey and a human subjects experiment. Survey results suggest that wheelchair users experience a lack of access-specific information sources, and their unfamiliarity with quantitative access measures might also impede effective information acquisition from high-quality access information sources. Both the survey and experiment have been successfully implemented with the help of UCTC funding; however, more support is needed for analysis of results from the human-subject experiment and the writing of the dissertation. The significance of this work is to increase the quality of the representation of access-specific information by developing a design standard. This will promote increased awareness of mobility-impaired travelers’ information needs, an improvement of information equality leading to social equity, and the promotion of safe travel as a contributing factor to active lifestyles.

Key words: accessibility, route planning, trip planning, travel information, information acquisition, mobility impaired.

Transportation and the Environment: Essays on Technology, Infrastructure, and Policy

Mana Sangkapichai, UC Irvine

Advisor: Jean-Daniel Saphores

As emissions from millions of vehicles increase substantially every year, air quality is currently a major problem in California and it seems increasingly difficult to find effective solutions. These three independent yet related projects attempt to propose possible solutions to deal with California’s air pollution problem. The first project will evaluate and analyze the increasing interest for hybrid cars in California by quantifying the short term impacts of concerns for air pollution, energy efficiency policies, allowing single-occupant hybrid vehicle to use high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes in terms of availability, and long term impacts for air pollution and global warming. The second project attempts to analyze the decision to abandon an urban public transit system such as a rail system by developing theoretical models and calculating the impacts for residents in terms of rail infrastructure can be abandoned at a cost. The final project revises the work by Giuliano, Hwang and Wachs on the performance of Employee Trip Reduction Program (Rule 2202) in Southern California. This project will review, evaluate, and analyze the program with is part of Transportation Demand Management (TDM) for improving air quality and traffic congestion and making policy recommendations.

Key words: California's air pollution problem, high-occupancy vehicle(HOV), global warming, abandon an urban public transit system, Employee Trip Reduction Program (Rule 2202), Transportation Demand Management(TDM).

Measuring Commercial Vehicle Travel through New High Fidelity Inductive Sensors

Yeow Chern Andre Tok, UC Irvine

Advisor: Stephen G. Ritchie

The extent and severity of traffic and environment impacts of commercial vehicles is currently not well understood due to the lack of an advanced surveillance system that provides necessary information about the nature and variation of their travel behavior. This is particularly important in considering the impacts of major investments in trade national corridor improvements, including access and egress for the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.

This research study will develop a new commercial vehicle vector classification system based on a prototype implementation of a new high-fidelity inductive loop sensor that is relatively easy to install and has the potential to yield highly detailed vehicle inductive signatures. This new classification system will provide an unprecedented level of detail on commercial vehicles. The initial results show the potential of using such an inductive sensor to provide a more comprehensive commercial vehicle data profile based on its ability to extract both axle configuration information as well as high fidelity undercarriage profiles within a single sensor technology.

Key words: commercial vehicle vector classification system, inductive loop sensor.

Operational Strategies for Single-stage Crossdocks

Jiana-Fu Wang, UC Irvine

Advisor: Amelia C. Regan

With the growth of e-commerce and urban sprawl, hub-and-spoke trucking operations are receiving increased attention. In these operations, transportation resources can be employed more efficiently, transportation costs can be reduced and, at the same time, network service levels can be improved. However, because of the importance of hub operations, any delay or inefficiency in a hub can hinder the performance of the whole network.

In order to examine potential methods for improving the efficiency of these hubs, we will build a model that includes congestion effects caused by workers and freight travel in a crossdock. We then examine trailer scheduling, destination postponement and worker dispatching strategies, as ways to alleviate congestion and thus increase the crossdock’s throughput. By doing so, we hope to enhance the strength of logistics networks and increase the incentive for companies to adopt hub-and-spoke operations to benefit both private firms and consumers.

Key words: Logistics network, hub-and-spoke operation, crossdock, trailer scheduling, postponement, dynamic assignment, simulation, stage queuing.

Asymmetric Microscopic driving behavior theory

Hwasoo Yeo, UC Berkeley

Advisor: Alexander Skabardonis

Traffic in the congested region shows very complicated patterns which cannot be easily understood. It is usually regarded as random movement and no reasonable solutions and explanations have been found yet. Therefore, the purpose of the research, starting from the microscopic data analysis, is to develop a new theory that can reveal the behaviors in the congested part.

By analyzing NGSIM data recently filed by FHWA, a new theory incorporating two curves in the congestion part of fundamental diagram has been developed as a framework for modeling driving behavior. This asymmetric theory will also be extended with anticipation and overreaction so that it can provide a complete theory for more complex traffic phenomenon such as stop-and -go traffic and relaxation after lane changing. An analytic car-following model will be developed based on the the new theory and will be validated in a full traffic simulation environment. The new theory is supposed to provide a better understanding of traffic phenomena and robust background for micro and macro-simulation.

Key words: Traffic, driving behavior, asymmetric theory, stop-and-go traffic, relaxation, car-following model, traffic simulation.