University of California Transportation Center

UCTC Research Abstracts 2003-4

Faculty Research:

The following projects, submitted by faculty members of the University of California, were evaluated and selected for funding based on a peer review process.

Experiments to Increase Freeway Merge Capacity

Principal Investigator:
Michael Cassidy
UC Berkeley
Email: cassidy@ce.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Ramp metering strategies that increase the capacity of a freeway/on-ramp merge will be designed and experimentally tested. To these ends, we will build upon some preliminary studies of a merge in San Diego, California. Observations indicate that vehicle slowing and lane-changing maneuvers can diminish the capacity of this merge by 8 to 10 percent. The observations further show that these deleterious slowing and lane-changing effects occur when inflows to the merge (from the on-ramp and/or from the freeway) become too high. The research will explore how onramp metering might mitigate these deleterious effects. In this way, we expect to establish traffic management policies that reduce overall commuter delay at the merge. Further, the work will set the stage for future efforts to develop delay-saving policies that do not merely favor the major traffic stream (the freeway) to the detriment of the other (the on-ramp), but instead involve the management of both inflow streams in a more equitable manner. The work should also advance the theory of traffic flow at merges.

Key Words: freeway capacity, ramp metering, merges

Objective: develop strategies for managing merges on freeways

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: improved traffic management strategies

Direct Cost: $54,034

Amber Alert Policy: Laboratory Experiments to Improve a Policy

Principal Investigator:
Theodore Cohn
UC Berkeley
Email: tecohn@sensitivity.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: In 2002, California adopted the communication protocol known as the Amber Alert (AA) which is now becoming a nationwide effort. The purpose is to alert the driving public to emerging events such as child abduction. The AA structure employs Variable Message Signs (VMS) on California highways. Policy is jointly developed by the CHP, the agency that initiates the alert, and Caltrans, the agency that implements it on VMS signs. CHP would like more information conveyed, to improve the odds of success. Caltrans would like less information conveyed so as to minimize congestion that signs have been observed to cause. We propose a laboratory study to examine the ability of drivers to acquire the message without the need to slow while passing by. Abbreviations, compacting of text, optimization of presentations that require two screens of information, are a few of the many possible strategies that we can study. The outlines of a field operational test of what the lab study reveals will be developed.

Key Words: amber alert, variable message signs, congestion management

Objective: study ability of drivers to acquire a message without slowing

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: develop sign strategies that better meet objectives of both Caltrans and the California Highway Patrol

Direct Cost: $56,275

Improved Developer Models for the Sacramento Region

Principal Investigator:
Robert Johnston
UC Davis
Email: rajohnston@ucdavis.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Urban models have advanced greatly in the last 20 years. Recent models represent the floorspace developer explicitly, increasing the behavioral validity of the land markets in the models. We believe, however, that there is a need to separately represent the developers of large projects on the urban edge, as these projects can strongly affect subsequent development patterns. We propose to estimate and test such a model, and to apply it within an advanced urban model set for the Sacramento region.

Key Words: land use models, developer behavior

Objective: develop a model of large developer behavior at the urban fringe

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: improved transportation-land use modeling and analysis

Direct Cost: $42,141

Death on the Crosswalk: A Study of Pedestrian Accidents in Los Angeles

Principal Investigator:
Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris
UC Los Angeles
Email: loukaitou-sideris@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: This research proposes to explore the spatial distribution of pedestrian-automobile accidents in Los Angeles and to analyze the social and physical factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such accidents. More specifically, the proposed study will investigate the influence of socio-demographic characteristics as well as the design of urban form on pedestrian accident rates. This study will involve research both at the macro and micro level. We will first provide an exploratory spatial and statistical analysis of pedestrian collision data in Los Angeles County to identify preliminary relationships between accident frequency and socio-demographic and land use characteristics of census tracts. This analysis will also help us identify major concentrations (regional clusters) of pedestrian collision data. More qualitative and detailed analysis will follow of specific case studies of intersections with high frequency of pedestrian-automobile accidents. The study will use pedestrian accident data provided by the California Highway Patrol, traffic volume data provided by Caltrans, socio-demographic data from the U.S. Census 2000, and pedestrian volume and built environment data from fieldwork research.

Key Words: pedestrian accidents, social factors, demographic factors

Objective: identify socio-demographic characteristics of pedestrian accident victims; identify intersections with high pedestrian accident rates

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: improve pedestrian safety

Direct Cost: $37,163

Aggregate Structural Equations Modeling of the Relationships Between Consumer Expenditures on Communications and Travel

Principal Investigator:
Patricia Mokhtarian
UC Davis
Email: plmokhtarian@ucdavis.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Two aggregate studies of the relationships between communications and travel found apparently contradictory results: An input-output (I-O) analysis of relationships between transportation and communication input intensities across industries in Europe (1980) found complementarity (Plaut, 1997), while simultaneous equation models of aggregate consumer expenditures in Australia and the UK (1960- 1986) found pairwise substitution among private transportation, public transportation, and communication (Selvanathan and Selvanathan (S&S), 1994). Given technological advances such as mobile telephony and the Internet, it is possible that consumer relationships between communications and travel have changed substantially in the 17 years since the most recent data used in the latter study. A currently-funded UCTC study is replicating the Plaut industry analysis on US data, and extending it across 1947-1997. The proposed study would apply the S&S consumer analysis to US data, extending to at least the year 2000. Taken together, the two studies will provide complementary evidence on aggregate relationships between communications and travel for industry and consumers, controlling for spatial and temporal factors. The proposed study in particular will provide at least suggestive indications (through comparison to the S&S study) of how those relationships for consumers might be changing with advances in communication technology. The result will be a more informed view of the extent to which it is realistic to expect telecommunications to substitute for travel, especially in the consumer context.

Key Words: telecommunications, travel substitution

Objective: model and compare telecommunications and travel I/O relationships and consumer consumption of telecommunications and travel using US data

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: better understanding of the role of telecommunications in travel substitution and/or travel growth

Direct Cost: $56,498

Auctions for the Procurement of Transportation Service Contracts

Principal Investigator:
Amelia Regan
UC Irvine
Email: aregan@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: Large shippers have moved from lane by lane negotiation for trucking services to combinatorial auctions, in which several lanes are put out to bid together and trucking companies may bid for more that one package of services. The bid construction and valuation problem is a difficult one involving NP-hard sub problems. This research develops tractable approximation methods for solving these problems and identifies ways that smaller carriers can work together to capture the benefits available to larger carriers.

Key Words: trucking, combinatorial auctions, algorithms

Objective: develop tractable approximation methods for freight service bid construction and valuation

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: improve health of trucking industry by supporting more effective bidding

Direct Cost: $51,603

Identification and Measurement of Freeway Congestion

Principal Investigator:
Alexander Skabardonis
UC Berkeley
Email: skabardonis@ce.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: The objective of the proposed research is to develop a methodology to identify and measure total, recurrent, and non-recurrent congestion delay on urban freeways. The methodology will be applicable to urban freeways that are instrumented with loop detectors or other surveillance systems. The proposed methodology calculates the average and the probability distribution of congestion delays by cause (recurrent, incident related, weather and other factors). The methodology also will quantify the congestion impacts on travel time and travel time variability. The proposed work is based on recent research by the investigator. The findings to-date indicate that reliable measurement of congestion should provide measures of uncertainty in congestion. In applications on two real-life corridors, incident-related delay is found to be between 13 to 30 percent of the total congestion delay during peak periods.

Key Words: recurrent, congestion delay, freeways, surveillance, incident travel time, measurements

Objective: develop methods for measuring freeway delay using surveillance devices estimate uncertainty in delay estimates and delay due to incidents and recurrent congestion

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: improved congestion management and delay estimation

Direct Cost: $38,281

Capacity Provision and Pricing in Road Transport Networks in an Imperfectly Competitive Economy

Principal Investigator:
Kurt Van Dender
UC Irvine
Email: kvandend@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: The standard economic prescription for managing network congestion relies heavily on the internalization, through tolls, of the congestion externality. Two basic insights are that (a) charging appropriate tolls reduces congestion to –in principle optimal levels, and (b) decisions on infrastructure expansion or contraction are less likely to be misguided when tolls are present.

These basic principles rely on the assumption that markets are perfectly competitive. More precisely, a trip is undertaken for one or more purposes, and the prices related to these purposes are competitive. That is, a commuting trip is undertaken to earn a competitive wage, and a shopping trip involves paying the competitive price for purchased goods.

This project will assess the impact of accounting for imperfect competition on the economic prescriptions for road infrastructure pricing and its provision. The motivation is that the assumption of perfect competition is not realistic. It also is at odds with developments in mainstream economics, where imperfect competition models become the rule rather than the exception, precisely because of their higher degree of realism.

First, a model of the interactions between transport network management and competitive conditions in the economy is required. Preliminary work indicates that even small departures from the perfect competition assumption have major effects on policy prescriptions. In fact, it shows that congestion itself generates non-competitive market results. Second, empirical evidence is sought in order to determine which of the available models best approximates real conditions. The data will be used to construct numerical models for policy analysis.

Key Words: imperfect information, road pricing

Objective: account for the effect of imperfect information on road pricing and infrastructure provision

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: more realistic models and estimates of the effects of pricing policies

Direct Cost: $51,409

Family Caregivers, the Elderly, and Land-Use: An Evaluation of Transportation in Two California Communities

Principal Investigator:
Martin Wachs
UC Berkeley
Email: mwachs@uclink.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: The transportation research literature has paid increasing attention to the importance of informal caregiving networks for maintaining the mobility of senior citizens who have lost the ability to drive. Still, significant gaps exist in the identification of the travel patterns and needs of both the seniors who are reliant upon caregivers and those providing the caregiving services. We will conduct a transportation needs assessment of caregivers and seniors in two communities in the suburban California county of Contra Costa using quantitative and qualitative measures. Our study population of caregivers will comprise individuals in low-income brackets who provide care to an elderly family member. Finally, only seniors who have gone through driving cessation (and their associated caregivers), but who are not entirely homebound (making at least one trip per week) will be in the study population.

Of the two study communities to be chosen for this research, one will have relatively high-density development and be composed of mixed land uses and the other will be characterized by lower density and with more segregated land uses. Our second goal is to identify whether, controlling for other variables, these land-use differences affect the travel behavior and experiences of seniors and caregivers in our two communities. The relationship between land-use characteristics and travel remains an important question in the literature and practice.

Key Words: informal caregiving networks, mobility, senior citizens, Contra Costa, low-income, driving cessation, land-use

Objective: identify travel needs of caregivers and the elderly adults they attend

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: more effective transportation policies and services for elderly adults

Direct Cost: $33,075

Transportation Policy Development: Labor as a Missing Stakeholder

Principal Investigator:
Margaret Weir
UC Berkeley
Email: mweir@socrates.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Abstract: For over a decade, federal transportation policy has sought to open regional transportation decision-making to new voices and to facilitate the use of transportation funds on an expanded array of transportation modes. Much of the impetus for these changes in federal legislation came from environmentalists and advocates for low-income communities, who believed that existing decision-making processes advantaged developers and highway interests. However, these processes have rarely engaged labor unions. This research project seeks to understand the role of labor in the development of transportation policy. The research takes a two-pronged approach: first, it examines the processes of coalition building in which labor has engaged as it seeks to participate in transportation policymaking. Second, the research analyzes the problems of consensus building around transportation policy within the labor movement, where institutional complexity, the potentially divergent interests of different unions, and a culture organized around the immediate goals of collective bargaining make it difficult for labor to engage effectively. The research will be conducted in two states: Illinois, where transit unions have launched a statewide coalition to increase state spending on public transit; and California, (both Los Angeles and the Bay Area), where central labor councils have taken the lead in bringing labor into transportation policymaking.

Key Words: transit labor, coalition-building

Objective: document and analyze coalition-building strategies used by labor to influence transportation policy

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, assemble data, analyze data, and prepare reports.

Milestones, Dates: Official start date Aug. 1, 2003, end July 31, 2004

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website and distributed in hard copy, in most instances free of charge. .

Relationship to Other UCTC Research: new project

Potential Benefits: improved understanding of labor issues and concerns; more effective policies

Direct Cost: $41,698

Dissertation Research:

The Productive Efficiency of Ports: Lessons from the Pacific Rim Seaports' Corporatization and Strategic Management

Sang Hyun Cheon, UC Berkeley

Advisor: David Dowall

This research aims to understand the question: "in what ways does port corporatization influence strategic capital management practice of port authorities? And, how does their interplay affect port efficiency and performance?" Focusing on the seaport sector, I will examine the relationship between institutional structure and the capacity of strategic planning in the infrastructure capital investment decision-making process, and I will explore how this interplay contributes to achieving higher port productivity and performance. I will adopt a combination of two methods for this research: quantitative analysis, and case studies. First, an empirical survey on world ports will be given in order to explore the relationship between corporatization and port performance. I will then conduct case studies for four Pacific Rim seaports, namely, the Port of Los Angeles in the US, the Port of Sydney in Australia, the Port of Auckland in New Zealand, and the Port of Singapore in Singapore. This study will provide ways to (1) identify what causal factors may induce better performance in port management; (2) address major reasons for success or failure of port corporatization; (3) document innovative ways of port management and flexible mechanisms of leading performers

Key words: port corporatization, strategic capital management, port efficiency

Ozone Pollution and Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Activities in Southern California

Oliver H. Gao, UC Davis

Advisor: Debbie Niemeier

Successful ozone control strategies require good understanding of ozone formation, scavenging, and transport dynamics, which are well reflected by diurnal ozone cycles and their variability. Functional data analysis (FDA) of diurnal ozone and NOx curves converts the raw hourly ozone/NOx data on each day into a functional data object, which facilitates further statistical analyses but retains the variability in the raw data. Functional principal component analysis (FPCA) assesses the complexity and dimensionality of the variability in daily ozone and NOx cycles. Functional analysis of variance (FANOVA) examines the ozone weekend effect (OWE), which has raised questions to ozone control strategies by further NOx reduction. Hypotheses explaining the OWE have been postulated primarily upon day-of-week variations in the timing, magnitude and mix of traffic activities, the dominant sources to ozone precursors. Guided by these hypotheses, nonparametric factorial analyses of light-duty vehicle (LDV) and heavy-duty truck (HDT) volumes are conducted to examine the implications of their weekly and spatial patterns for the OWE. The results are applicable in the development of state implementation plan (SIP), the evaluation of traffic control measures (TCMs), and the interaction of transportation planning with air quality modeling, which are mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendment (1991) and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991, now TEA-21.

Key words: ozone control strategies, functional data analysis, diurnal ozone and NOx curves, variability in emissions, ozone weekend effect, nonparametric factorial analyses, truck volumes, traffic activities

Life in the Fast Lane: Transportation Finance and the Local Option Sales Tax

Andrew D. Green, UC Riverside

Advisor: Max Neiman

Local option sales taxed for transportation have become an important source of transportation funding in the State of California. In some California counties, local option sales tax revenue is responsible for almost a third of the transportation funding available for programs and projects. The proposed research focuses on why the state legislature devolved power and authority to the local level, specifically the county level, by allowing counties to place local option sales taxes before the voters. Contrary to what might at first blush be expected, government agencies or levels of government rarely agree to give up power, but the California legislature crafted a policy that did just that. From a theoretical standpoint, it is challenging to explain why the legislature chose to do this. As a transportation policy issue, it is also important to understand why it is that counties became the focus for implementing transportation policy when transportation in the 1980s had so many statewide and regional challenges. The research program delineated above should convey important messages about local transportation financing, as well as important causal explanations to why the state government would focus on counties to supplement their state and federal transportation revenues with local option sales tax revenue.

Key words: local option sales taxes, counties, state legislature, devolved power and authority to the local level

Creating Pedestrian Space Networks in Two Planning Regimes: The Experience of San Francisco and Copenhagen, Denmark

Neil Hrushowy, UC Berkeley

Advisor: Peter Bosselmann

This dissertation studies the design of pedestrian space networks in two cities, San Francisco and Copenhagen, Denmark. Over the past 40 years Copenhagen has successfully redesigned many of its streets and neighborhoods to support pedestrian mobility, while simultaneously taking steps to reduce the presence of automobiles. San Francisco, despite a dense urban fabric that could support pedestrian mobility, has not engaged in a systematic program of pedestrian facility improvement. Using a case study approach, this dissertation will explore whether a continuous and connected pedestrian space network is a necessary element for pedestrian-oriented lifestyles. It will use a combination of self-administered questionnaires and qualitative interviews with residents to understand how pedestrian choices are made in a variety of urban environments, and to test whether the geographic extent of the pedestrian network is a significant factor in the choice to walk. It will also explore whether the market-oriented planning environments typical of American cities relies on planning tools that are too reactive and fragmented to successfully create geographically extensive pedestrian networks. I will examine official planning documents and interview planners responsible for neighborhood-level enforcement of planning regulations to assess the planning environment’s ability to create continuous and connected pedestrian space networks.

Key words: comparative analysis, urban design, pedestrian planning

How Does Urban Form Affect Inhalation of Transportation Emissions?

Julian Marshall, UC Berkeley

Adviser: William Nazaroff

Casual links between health effects and the toxic pollutants present in motor vehicle exhaust have been established. But who is exposed, and at what level? This depends in part on how a metropolitan area is laid out, and on the amount people drive.

My research will explore how land use patterns influence population inhalation of urban air toxics from passenger vehicles. I will focus on land area and the spatial distribution of both employment and population density as three key aspects of urban form that are important to policy makers, that influence transportation emissions and intakes, and that are influenced by urban planning decisions. My research will pose two questions. First, to what extent to changes in land use patterns influence passenger vehicle emissions? This connection, which has been studied in the urban planning literature, is due to a number of factors e.g., availability of public transit and parking, and accessibility to employment, goods and services. Second, how do changes in land use patterns alter the physical proximity between people and transportation infrastructure, thereby affecting the relationship between emissions and exposures? To my knowledge this question has not been investigated quantitatively in the literature. Furthermore, existing research has not quantitatively explored the issue that compact design (i.e. increasing population density) may increase exposures, even as emissions are reduced.

Key words: land use patterns, population inhalation, urban air toxics, urban form, passenger vehicle emissions, exposures

Deep Discount Group Pass Programs as Instruments for Increasing Transit Revenue and Ridership

Cornelius Nuworsoo, UC Berkeley

Adviser: Martin Wachs

Transit properties have historically experienced loss of market share and low levels of farebox recovery. They resorted to service expansion to maximize subsidies. Experience suggests that fare reductions can boost ridership but can also reduce revenue and increase subsidy. The challenge is adopting such strategies as deep discount group pass programs that can produce more marginal revenue than cost. Although the successes of deep discount pass programs are documented, there is substantial skepticism toward their wide-scale deployment because transit management perceives them as “special treatments” or “favors”. Management fears such perception could raise questions about equity because they fail to see the fundamental difference in the fare structure of the “group pass” from individual ticket purchases. Although agencies recognize the factors for price determination, research reveals that no systematic methodology exists and pass prices are largely determined by watching what others have done. This study seeks to establish a methodology to aid operators in determining deeply discounted but favorable pass prices. The methodology would consider: revenue lost from existing riders at prevailing fares; level of patronage in the primary location of transit use; any additional costs necessitated by the program; attractiveness of program terms to participants; and increasing operating revenue.

Key words: farebox recovery, subsidies, ridership, revenue, deep discount group pass, marginal revenue, operating revenue

Door-to-Door Delivery Systems: Operational Changes and New Modeling Challenges

Minyoung Park, UC Irvine

Adviser: Amelia C. Regan

The trucking industry, which plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy, is experiencing a transition in both supply and demand as a result of growth advances in information technologies and the growth of e-commerce.

Increasingly, customers of trucking companies including manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, and individual customers, demand quicker and more reliable delivery no matter what the size of the load. The rapidly increasing demand for express package delivery services, a part of the less-than-truckload (LTL) segment in the trucking industry is noteworthy. These changes on the demand side lead to developments on the supply side. In order to survive in the market, carriers must respond to new customer needs arising from changes in production and distribution systems. A recent survey of trucking firms showed that most traditional trucking firms are investing in advanced information technologies in order to respond to the challenges and opportunities of the new economy in the forms of just-in-time distribution, package express and door-to-door delivery.

Although e-commerce growth has been widely discussed, the impacts of the digital economy on the freight transportation system still remain uncertain, raising many questions and issues such as how and to what extent e-commerce will influence or interact with the freight transportation system and how trucking firms should respond to the changes. In the proposed research, we investigate operational changes arising in the door-to-door express delivery systems and develop and analysis tool incorporating the distinct features of express delivery operations. The results of the research can be used to identify advanced distribution strategies for improving the operating efficiency of door-to-door express delivery systems, while enhancing customer satisfaction.

Key words: electronic commerce, express package delivery, commercial vehicle operations, pickup and delivery problem, dynamic vehicle routing problem

Cars and the City: Transport and Residential Choice Patterns Among Urban Residents

Deborah Salon, UC Davis

Adviser: James Wilen

Heavy reliance on the private automobile for urban transportation causes substantial externalities, leading both car ownership and use levels to be higher than is socially optimal. Recognizing this, cities around the world are trying out a multitude of transportation policy and investment alternatives, with the aim of reducing car-induced externalities. However, without a solid understanding of how urban residents make their transportation and residential location choices, it is hard to tell which of these policies and investments are really doing the job.

My dissertation will contribute to improving our understanding of this choice behavior using household survey data from New York. Specifically, my dissertation asks:

What factors explain where New York City residents choose to live?
What factors explain whether or not New York City residents own a vehicle?
What factors determine New York City residents' choices about their work transport mode?
How closely linked are the mode choice, car ownership, and residential location decisions?
What impacts do government policies and transport infrastructure investments have on the choices that people make?

At the heart of my research will be a discrete choice model of the interrelated choices of residential location, car ownership, and transport mode to work.

Key words: car ownership, mode choice, discrete choice

Defensive Driving and the External Costs of Accidents and Travel Delays

Seiji S. C. Steimetz, UC Irvine

Adviser: David Brownstone

As the number of vehicles on the road increases, so does the risk of an accident. This gives rise to what economists refer to as “accident externalities” – the risk-related costs that motorists impose on one another. While some consider these costs to be paramount, an accepted convention is that no such costs exist. This convention is based on a modeling approach that reaches such a conclusion if observed accident rates do not vary with traffic volumes. However, when driving conditions become more hazardous, motorists naturally offset this risk to some extent by driving more carefully. Since this defensive effort is costly, positive accident externalities can exist even when observed accident rates are stable. This illustrates how the standard approach to modeling accident externalities can significantly understate these costs. Moreover, cautious driving often entails slower driving, warranting a joint model of accident and travel-delay costs. My research proposes such a model, from which an empirical framework can be developed to estimate these costs in a manner that jointly considers accident risk, efforts to offset this risk, and their impact on travel times. Estimates from this framework would generate direct implications for congestion pricing, highway expansion, and related transportation policies.

Key words: accident externalities, accident rates, defensive effort, travel delay, accident risk, congestion pricing, highway expansion

Empirical Tracking and Analysis of Dynamics in Activity Scheduling and Schedule Execution

Jianyu (Jack) Zhou, UC Santa Barbara

Adviser: Reginald Golledge

Activity scheduling study plays significant roles in helping forecast travel demands from an activity-based perspective. Its contributions in the transportation research context have revolved around two aspects: the temporal-spatial decision-making structure embedded in the scheduling process, and the linkage of schedule to actual activity execution. The former portion of the problem has been clarified with considerable modeling and simulation efforts (in computer game settings, or modeled in computational process models (CPM)). However, study of the latter aspect -- the control process of activity schedule execution -- has been neglected owning to the limited data capture means that are currently available. This research attempts to deepen our understanding of the dynamics of and linkages between the activity scheduling and execution process at the individual level by means of empirical real-time data collection. A nested-logit model is constructed to explain the congruence and deviation relations between activity schedules and the associated execution with respect to constraining factors such as specific activity types, activity-related spatial-temporal factors, and other psychological or environmental factors. A near-real-time system with a speech-enabled multi-modal interface is proposed for fulfilling the demanding task of tracking the dynamic process and recording the activity scheduling and execution data in a real-life situation.

Key words: activity scheduling and execution process, nested-logit model, near-real-time system