UCTC Research Abstracts 1999-2000

Dissertation Research

Faculty Research:

The following projects, submitted by faculty members of the University of California, were evaluated and selected for funding based on a peer review process.  

The Transportation Behavior and Needs of Welfare Recipients

Principal Investigator:
Evelyn Blumenberg
Public Policy and Social Research
University of California, Los Angeles
eblumenb@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of transportation behavior and the needs of welfare recipients.

Abstract: This study applies survey research and data analysis to investigate travel patterns and identify transport needs of welfare recipients. Access to confidential data on welfare recipients will be obtained from county officials, and a sample of welfare recipients will be drawn from this database. A survey instrument will be developed, administered, and analyzed.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words:  welfare-to-work, transportation needs, survey research

New Highways & Urban Growth Patterns: Using Locally Weighted Regression to Analyze the Development Impact of the Orange County Toll Roads

Principal Investigator:
Prof. Marlon G. Boarnet
Urban & Regional Planning, Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Irvine
949-824-7695
mgboarne@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of new highways and urban growth patterns, and the development impact of the Orange County toll roads.

Abstract: The nature of the link between urban development and highway infrastructure is still poorly understood yet recent prominent discussions of the link between highways, urban decentralization and induced automobile travel have created a need to better understand the specific nature of any influence that new highways have on urban development. This research will use econometric models of house sales prices and census tract population and employment growth to examine whether and how toll roads have changed land values and, by extension, development patterns in Orange County, California. The essence of the research is to carefully examine how house prices and census tract population and employment were influenced by the opening of the county's extensive toll road network. Such a test has never been done using advanced empirical techniques, with the extensive data that are currently available, and in the context of a road building project as extensive as the recent construction of the three major toll roads in Orange County. The results of this research will provide the first statistically and theoretically sound "before and after" test of the effect of highways on urban growth patterns.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: highways, urban development, land use-transportation link, econometric models

Induced Travel Demand: A Systems Analysis of Longer Term Impacts of Road Expansion

Principal Investigator:
Robert Cervero
Institute of Urban and Regional Planning
University of California, Berkeley
510-642-1695
robertc@uclink.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of induced travel demand by looking at the longer term impacts of road expansion.

Abstract: Induced travel demand has been mired in legal and political controversy in recent years. This project will examine the longer term structural forces behind induced increases in traffic following road expansion. Using the technique of path analysis, the research will investigate the degree to which traffic volume increases over a four- to six-year time frame are accounted for by land development and land-use changes as well as increased vehicle ownership along impacted corridors. Whether road improvements function more as lead or lag factors in explaining structural shifts in land use and vehicle ownership will also be investigated.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: induced travel demand, path analysis, land-use impacts, case studies

Measuring the Impact of the Internet on the Trucking Industry

Principal Investigator:
Carlos Daganzo
Civil & Environmental Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
510-642-3853
daganzo@ce.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the impact of the internet on the trucking industry.

Abstract: The internet is both a challenge and an opportunity for the trucking industry. The recent growth in internet e-commerce is reshaping distribution patterns for trucking firms. Trucking firms are also changing their operations as a result of the internet (e.g. with on-line load matching). To survive they must adapt to the new demand patterns and exploit technological advantages. A deep understanding of the forces shaping the trucking industry in this new environment is essential for effective public policy-making. This research would examine 1) how individual firms of different kinds should alter their operation plans, 2) the resulting changes to their costs, 3) the effect of the internet on the competitiveness of firms in various sectors of the industry, and 4) the ensuing structural changes to the industry as a whole.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: internet, trucking industry, logistics, operations plans

Investigating How GIS Data Handling Can Supplement Activity-Based Modeling

Principal Investigator:
Reginald G. Golledge
Department of Geography
University of California, Santa Barbara
805-893-2731
golledge@geog.ucsb.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the ability of  GIS handling to supplement activity based modeling.

Abstract: We will use the U.S. Department of Transportation's GPS-generated Lexington Travel Data to conduct a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of activities, including single-trips and trip chains and compare it with the data needs of SMASH and ALBATROSS, two leading packages for activity analysis, and we will conceptually define how a GIS can be adapted to perform the analytical functions required by SMASH and ALBATROSS. Finally, we will try to adapt the Santa Barbara-based GISICAS CPM to handle these requirements.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key Words: GIS, behavioral travel model, GPS, activity analysis

Impacts of Shipping Changes on the Efficiency of the Freight Transportation Network

Principal Investigator:
Thomas F. Golob
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Irvine
949-824-5989
tgolob@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the impacts of shipping changes on the efficiency of the freight transportation network.

Abstract: Manufacturing and distribution systems have undergone significant changes in recent years; "just-in-time" production and distribution systems have led to an increase in the number of time-sensitive freight movements. Time-definite services and regular updates on the status of en-route shipments is expected of many shippers. Additionally, freight movements take place in smaller units, increasing overall freight movements. This study extends an earlier study of the trucking industry in California by focusing on the impacts of shipper decisions on performance of the highway transportation system. Information will be gathered using both stated preference and revealed preference survey techniques. Forecasts of future freight transport growth will be developed and of likely changes in the configuration of the freight network in southern California.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key Words: freight demand modeling, commercial vehicle operations, urban goods movement, shipper behavior, policy analysis

Roadway Tunnel Measurements of Carbon & Nitrogen-Containing Air Pollutants in Motor Vehicle Exhaust

Principal Investigator:
Robert Harley
Civil & Environmental Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
510-643-9168
harley@ce.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the concentration of nitrogen-containing air pollutants in motor vehicle exhaust as measured in roadway tunnels.

Abstract: Motor vehicles are a significant source of air pollution, especially in urban areas, so major efforts have been made to control the emissions from vehicles. Catalytic converters are one of several control strategies in use to reduce emissions but concerns have been expressed about the possibility of undesirable side effects of catalytic converter use. The goal of this research is to measure the emissions of carbon and nitrogen-containing air pollutants from on-road vehicles during summer 1999. Special attention will be given to measuring ammonia emissions which are thought to have increased since the introduction of 3-way catalytic converters. These measurements will be used to assess trends in emissions associated with changes in vehicle technologies and fuels, in anticipation of a phase-out of MTBE in gasoline, and major air quality field studies planned in northern/central California in the year 2000.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key Words: vehicle emissions, air quality

The Effects of Urban Land Use Patterns on Household Trip-Making Behavior: An Empirical Analysis

Principal Investigator:
John D. Landis
Department of City & Regional Planning
University of California, Berkeley
510-642-5918
landis@uclink.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the effects of urban land use patterns on household trip-making behavior.

Abstract: Little empirical work has been done to confirm or reject the belief, held by most planners, that land use patterns and forms significantly affect travel behavior. Studies of household trip-making behavior typically focus on household economic and demographic characteristics, regional activity patterns and densities, and the availability and cost of competing travel modes, usually to the exclusion of local land use measures. We propose to measure the statistical relationships between non-work travel behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area and the distribution and quality of nearby land uses (including transportation facilities and transportation-related land uses). Using 1) a 1995 household travel survey conducted by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, and 2) a data set or urban land uses collected by the Association of Bay Area governments, we propose to test the hypothesis that households which reside in cities with a "fine-grained" land use (and street) pattern--where land uses and activities are contained in a small area--will make more home-based trips, and will make greater use of non-auto travel modes as compared with demographically similar households residing in communities with a more homogenous urban land use pattern.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key Words: urban land use and travel behavior

Journeys to Crime: Documentation & Evaluation of Crime Incidence on & Around Railway Stations in Los Angeles

Principal Investigator:
Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris
Urban Planning
University of California, Los Angeles
310-206-9679
sideris@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the incidence of crime on and around railway stations in Los Angeles.

Abstract: The widespread perception that rapid transit brings increased crime to the areas it serves is a problem for the planning and implementation of new transit system stations. Evidence from Los Angeles indicates fear of crime is one of three reasons cited for non-use of transit stations. Most research on transit crime has focused on heavy rail systems and has examined the underground station environment. There is limited and inconclusive research on crime on and around surface and above-ground stations and very limited understanding of the "journey-to-crime" of potential offenders; we also do not clearly understand how new transit lines affect outlying suburban areas, and how surrounding environments affect station security. While we understand how certain design elements can mitigate crime in underground stations we are not very clear as to which of these elements are relevant for light rail stations. This study will examine the incidence of crime on the Green Line metro stations in Los Angeles to investigate how the introduction of this line has affected crime occurrence in the surrounding communities and how, in turn, characteristics of the immediate station neighborhood affect crime on the station. Using crime statistics, interviews, ridership and environmental data, we will document and evaluate 1) spatial and temporal distribution of crime along the metro line; 2) the impact of socio-demographic and environmental attributes on crime occurrence; 3) the possibility of crime dislocation; and 4) the possibility of transit-related crime in outlying areas.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key Words: transit-related crime, metro station crime

Estimation of Latent Pavement Properties Using Condition Survey Data

Principal Investigator:
Samer Madanat
Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
madanat@ce.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the latent pavement properties by using condition survey data.

Abstract: The availability of high-speed sensors for pavement inspection makes it possible to infer the causes of observed pavement deterioration. The simultaneous measurement of multiple pavement distresses can provide sufficient information to statistically estimate underlying pavement properties such as moduli. By inferring the values of the such variables in-situ, pavement engineers can use them for purposes of deterioration prediction. Furthermore, inferring the causes of the observed deterioration allows pavement engineers to select more effective maintenance strategies. The objective of this research is to use a latent variable model framework for the estimation of underlying pavement properties, using data from condition surveys.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key Words: pavement, deterioration, condition surveys, pavement distresses

Putting Behavior in Household Travel Behavior Data: An Interactive GIS-based Survey Via the Internet

Principal Investigator:
Michael McNally
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Irvine
949-824-8462
mcnally@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of household travel behavior by using an interactive GIS based survey via the internet.

Abstract: This project is the 2nd phase of a two-year project. A computer-based household activity survey program, CHASE, will be re-programmed, enhanced, and extended for internet application (iCHASE), integrated with a GIS, and utilized in a pilot study to collect data for a study of the determinants of travel and activity behavior in households. The result will facilitate identification of inter-relationships among a range of revealed travel and activity participation variables leading to the identification of what are critical variables, relationships, and rules that govern that behavior.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: travel behavior, activity diaries, internet, GIS

Measuring the Role of Transportation in Facilitating the Welfare to-Work Transition (Yr. 2)

Principal Investigators:
Paul Ong, Brian Taylor and Evelyn Blumenberg
Public Policy & Social Research
University of Calif. Los Angeles
310-825-8557 pmong@ucla.edu
310-825-1803 eblumenb@ucla.edu
310-825-7442 btaylor@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the role of transportation in facilitating the welfare-to-work transition.

Abstract: Anecdotal evidence and preliminary research suggest that transportation services are crucial to helping welfare recipients transition into the labor market; however, empirical research on the relationship between transportation and welfare use is limited. Also, welfare reform since 1996 is creating new conditions that are altering that relationship. To fill the research gap, we use administrative data on the geographic distribution of jobs in low wage firms and measures of access to transportation. This study models employment outcomes as a function of population and labor market characteristics and access to employment, including access to transportation and proximity to licensed child care centers.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: This is the continuation of a project sponsored in 1998-1999.

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: welfare-to-work, case studies (California), transit and employment

Development of Estimation Procedures for Activity-Based Model Forecasting

Principal Investigator:
Wilfred W. Recker
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Irvine
949-824-5642
wwrecker@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of procedures for activity-based model forecasting.

Abstract: The activity-based modeling framework offers an analytical option for estimating the relative importance of factors associated with the spatial and temporal interrelationships among the out-of-home activities that motivate household's needs or desire to travel. Demand estimation within the activity-based modeling framework is seen to provide both necessary constraint considerations on the household's decision alternatives within a utility-maximizing structure and a convenient mechanisms for generating the set of feasible alternatives that are likely to be considered. This study is based on previous activity-based research conducted by the principal investigator and his colleagues, and will be directed toward developing a practical estimation procedure to enable the use of a mathematical programming activity-based model as a demand forecasting tool.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: travel demand forecasting, activity-based modeling

Online Versus Rolling Horizon Algorithms for Dynamic Service Fleet Operations

Principal Investigator:
Amelia Regan, Sandra Irani
Civil & Environmental Engineering and Information & Computer Science
University of California, Irvine
949-824-1746
aregan@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of both online and rolling horizon algorithms for dynamic services fleet operations.

Abstract: Online algorithms, in which data is supplied to the algorithm incrementally and in which responses to the data are developed and implemented incrementally are of significant interest to the computer science community in general, and there has been recent interest in applying these techniques to the analysis of dynamic transportation problems. The most natural application of this work is to dynamic commercial vehicle operations. This research compares the performance of rolling horizon optimization algorithms (i.e. stochastic programming) to classical online approaches which react to current information but do not make probabilistic assumptions about the future. In addition, we develop algorithms which combine the benefits of these approaches but--like the online algorithms--are suitable for real time implementation. Where appropriate, we apply the technique of competitive analysis to algorithms for the service fleet operations.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: commercial vehicle operations, service fleet operations, urban goods movement, dynamic fleet management, online algorithms, competitive analysis

Evaluating University Transit Pass Programs

Principal Investigator:
Donald Shoup
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Los Angeles
310-825-5705
shoup@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of university transit pass programs.

Abstract: Several universities in the United States contract with their local transit operators to allow all students to ride public transit without paying a fare. Students simply display their university identification card when they board the bus. Twenty-five universities have been surveyed by the principal investigator to examine the cost and ridership for these fare-free public transit programs. All universities were enthusiastic about the programs but there has been almost no research to evaluate their benefits and costs. This research proposes to evaluate a pilot transit-pass program at the University of California at Los Angeles asking the following questions: 1) will it reduce parking demand; 2) increase student access; 3) improve transit service; 4) attract and retain students; 5) reduce the cost of a college education, and 4) reduce vehicle trips and vehicle emissions?

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: transit-pass programs, public transit, university transit

The Viability of Value Pricing Demonstrations

Principal Investigator:
Kenneth A. Small
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Irvine
949-824-5658
ksmall@uci.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the viability of value pricing demonstrations.

Abstract: Recently, the transportation policy community has turned to small-scale demonstration projects to test and publicize road pricing. Short-term demonstrations were carried out in Stuttgart, Germany and Bristol, England, while potentially permanent projects now operate in Orange County, (California), San Diego (California), and Houston (Texas). The latter three make use of value pricing, in which travelers can choose between free and priced roadways. Recent research, however, has uncovered a problem for such demonstrations: minimizing aggregate travel-delay costs on two parallel roadways- when one must be free--may call for tolls on the express roadways that are far lower than those now charged. In simulation studies, value pricing is sometimes worse than no pricing at all.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: value-pricing, road pricing, value of time, demonstration projects, second-best pricing

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading and the Transport Sector

Principal Investigator:
Daniel Sperling
Institute of Transportation Studies
One Shields Avenue, 2028 Academic Surge
Davis, CA 95616
530-752-6572
dsperling@ucdavis.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of greenhouse gas emissions trading the its relation to the transport sector.

Abstract: Climate change has become an internationally recognized environmental issue. Transportation contributes about 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. International negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have foundered in part over debates over the role of emissions trading. So far, no reports or papers addressing emissions trading issues have addressed the transport sector in a comprehensive fashion. Emissions trading schemes provide the potential for large emission reductions at low cost and may be more politically acceptable than tax and command-and-control approaches. But the diffuse nature of emission sources and other unique attributes of the transport sector create special challenges and opportunities for study.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: greenhouse gas, climate change, emissions trading, marketable permit

Driving for Dollars: How the Politics of Finance Has Shaped the California Highway System

Principal Investigator:
Brian Taylor
Department of Urban Planning
School of Public Policy & Social Research
University of California, Los Angeles
310-825-7442
btaylor@ucla.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of the effect of politics on the California highway system.

Abstract: A clear understanding of how the politics of public finance has shaped the development of transportation systems is crucial if we are to effectively manage and develop transportation infrastructure in the future. This research relies on a combination of historical, quantitative, and qualitative methods to explore three questions: 1) why did California embrace a user-fee-based transportation system in the 1920s, and why the recent shift to non-user-based finance instruments?; 2) why has California been unable to adopt an effective, equitable system of heavy vehicle fees?; and 3) why are current urban freeway systems so different than the early plans for cities?

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: freeway planning, transportation planning, public finance of transportation, transportation system development, transportation planning policy

Regional Transportation Infrastructure Finance in the United States: Influences & Trends

Principal Investigator:
Martin Wachs
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Berkeley
510-642-3585
mwachs@uclink.berkeley.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of regional transportation infrastructure finance in the United States.

Abstract: Most states have provisions by which counties or other regional authorities may adopt "local option taxes" to finance transportation investments. This study will seek to understand the basic characteristics of regional transportation finance in the United States, focusing on taxes adopted by counties and special districts in all fifty states that are earmarked for transportation purposes. It will examine the opportunities that state laws provide for the adoption of regional transportation taxes, the extent to which these taxes have been adopted, the relative importance of the revenues in transportation finance, and the means for making decisions about how these revenues will be utilized. Several research methods will be employed, including a survey of county officials, key informant interviews with state officials, and a review of state taxation laws.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: regional transportation, transportation finance, local option taxes

Estimating Freeway Traffic Stream Modal Activities for Air Quality Modeling

Principal Investigator:
H. Michael Zhang
Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of California, Davis
hmzhang@ucdavis.edu

External Project Contact : All UCTC projects are co-sponsored by Caltrans, Contact Sallybeth Scott, Caltrans, 1120 N St., Sacramento, CA 94305, tel. 916 324-2440

Project Objective: Improve understanding of freeway traffic stream modal activities for air quality modeling.

Abstract: The proposed research develops a method that uses data provided by widely deployed point sensors, namely inductive loop detectors, to construct vehicle trajectories of freeway traffic, from which modal activities of traffic streams can be estimated. This method provides a cost-effective way to develop freeway driving cycles used in air quality models and emission adjustment factors for freeways whose traffic flow patterns largely differ from those embodied in the driving cycles, thereby improving the accuracy of emission estimates by those models. It also produces "the ground truth" for calibrating transportation planning models when accurate speed estimates are desired.

Tasks: Review previous work on the topic, collect data, analyze data, write up results.

Milestones, Dates:  Official start date Oct. 1, 1999, end date Sept. 30, 2000;  project extended through 2002 because of late receipt of funds.

Student Involvement: Graduate Student Researcher

Relationship to Other Research Projects: New Project

Technology Transfer Activities: Publications will be posted on UCTC’s Website.

Potential Benefits: This project will increase knowledge of the research topic, thus helping to inform policy and to advance the state of the practice.

Key words: loop detectors, traffic streams, air quality models, velocity field

 

Dissertation Research

Development of an Activity -Based Microsimulation Model for Generating Synthetic Activity-Travel Patterns

Anup A. Kulkarni

 Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Irvine

The focus of this proposal is the development of an activity-travel pattern generator for travel demand forecasting. The proposed research is a necessary step in the development of novel transportation planning methodologies required to address the limitations of current modeling practice in meeting legislative and judicial mandates. The approach outlined builds upon existing research, conducted over two decades at UCI, demonstrating that travel behavior should be viewed holistically using activity-travel patterns, a time-dependent representation of the activities and their attributes in which an individual engages. A microsimulation approach integrated with a geographic information system is advanced to synthesize individual activity-travel patterns for households that are reflective of the available transportation and land use system. By using activity-travel patterns as the basis of the microsimulation, the timing, sequencing, and connections between activities are included in the model where previously they would be lost. The final product of this research will be a prototype modeling system that has the potential to replace some or all aspects of the traditional 'four-step' modeling process. The potential long-term contribution of this proposal towards the development of more accurate planning methods is relevant to the UCTC agenda and the transportation community at large.

Permanent Deformation of Asphalt Concrete Pavements

Fenella Margaret Long

 Transportation Engineering, UC Berkeley

Permanent deformation, or rutting, of asphalt concrete pavements is a serious safety issue for road users. Increasing demands are being placed on pavements by the trucking industry from increased axle loads and tire pressures, and from the introduction of larger aircraft. Many of the current mix design procedures for asphalt concrete pavements are unable to adequately prevent rutting under this increased loading. This research will develop an improved mix design procedure for permanent deformation, by defining a constitutive model to describe the mechanical behavior of asphalt concrete under the action of traffic loading. The research will proceed in six phases: investigate material behavior; determine constitutive model; determine input parameters for the constitutive model; implement the constitutive model in finite element program (FEAP); validate the constitutive model; and validate and enhance the current mix design procedure. The first phase involves the detailed analyses of existing laboratory and accelerated pavement test data and further laboratory testing to facilitate definition of the constitutive model. Existing laboratory tests, such as the simple shear test at constant height will be utilized in the research. Implementation of this research will aid in the mitigation of rutting, thereby increasing the life of asphalt concrete pavements. 

Improving Access to Jobs for Welfare Recipients Using "Smart" Ridesharing Services

Alfred David Round

City and Regional Planning, UC Berkeley

The 1996 federal welfare reform act sets strict time limits on eligibility for benefits. Transportation access is often a serious obstacle to employment for many welfare recipients, since most jobs are not easily accessible by public transit and a large proportion of recipients do not have cars. The purpose of this project is to deign three "smart" transportation services that provide commute trips for welfare recipients, and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these services. The proposed services are "smart" since they are cognizant of home origins, work destinations, and work schedules, as well as the spatial and temporal characteristics of the regional road network. A combination of GIS software and dynamic programming will use this information to generate the routes, schedules, and other service characteristics that will minimize average passenger delay and direct provider costs. The first service uses vans to provide door-to-door service for recipients. The second service uses private cars that are owned by recipients to provide door-to-door service for other recipients as well as themselves. These services will be designed and evaluated for welfare recipients living in West Oakland and in Marin County.

The Accessible City: Employment Opportunities in Time and Space

Lauren Margaret Scott

Joint Geography Doctoral Program at San Diego State, and UC Santa Barbara

Explosive suburban employment growth, declining residential densities, consequent new patterns of cross-commuting, economic restructuring, and rapid developments in transportation and telecommunications technologies are having a dramatic impact on the urban landscape. How are these spatial processes impacting intra-metropolitan accessibility and what are the implications? While the concept of accessibility provides a basis for a variety of urban policy and planning decisions, represents a common focus for a large body of geographic research concerned with urban economic growth, urban spatial structure, and social equity, and serves as a cornerstone in urban economic theory, it remains a difficult concept to operationalize. This research presents an analytical framework for evaluation, representing, and monitoring changing intra-metropolitan accessibility to employment opportunities. More specifically, it (1) determines how accessibility has been defined, modeled, measured, and interpreted; (2) suggests a new approach for evaluating intra-metropolitan accessibility founded on the Couclelis proximal space construct, the Getis/Ord G_i spatial statistic, a level-of-service definition of accessibility, multiple scale analysis, and a multi-dimensional conceptualization of accessibility; and (3) applies this analytical framework, implemented within a GIS environment, to employment data for the Greater Los Angeles region.

Regional Transportation Planning and Finance in the Bay Area: At Cross Purposes?

Todd Goldman

Department of City and Regional Planning, UC Berkeley

Residents of 18 California counties have voted to raise their sales taxes to pay for transportation improvements, raising $2 billion annually for investments in transportation services and infrastructure in their areas. This model of transportation finance has been hailed as an important step forward for local self-reliance and fiscal accountability. This dissertation will evaluate the accomplishments and implications of five county transportation sales tax programs in the Sad Francisco Bay Area. It will examine how the expenditure plans were developed, how they differed from existing plans developed by regional agencies, and the degree to which the promises made to voters are being fulfilled. It will also explore the broader significance of this approach to transportation finance, in terms of the results it has produced for spatial and economic equity, shifts in other investment priorities, and the integrity of the metropolitan transportation planning process.

The Analysis of Stop-Start Waves in Congested Freeway Traffic

Michael Mauch

Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley

The objective of this research is to study start-stop waves (i.e. backward-moving disturbances) that commonly arise in congested freeway traffic. To this end, transformed curves of cumulative vehicle arrivals will be constructed from the vehicle counts measured by closely-spaced loop detectors. Visual inspections of these curves along with a few formalization rules for their interpretation should reveal a number of important wave features. It is expected that these examinations, when repeated at different freeway locations and over multiple observation days, will provide insights into details, such as the traffic conditions that trigger the initiation of stop-start waves, certain characteristic wave features (e.g. wave frequency, duration, amplitude), details of how they propagate through congested traffic and their effects (if any) on freeway bottleneck capacity. Preliminary studies performed to date support this expectation. The findings from this work will provide bases for verifying (or discrediting) existing theories of traffic flow and may even lead to improved theories. These might be especially useful, for example, when estimating engine emissions and fuel consumption resulting from proposed freeway traffic control strategies or design improvements. Moreover, if stop-start waves are found to degrade freeway bottleneck capacity (a present uncertainty), this research would motivate the need for control strategies to suppress them.

Algorithms and Strategies for Dynamic Carrier Fleet Operations: Applications to Intermodal Freight Operations

Xiubin Wang

Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Irvine

The purpose of the project is to develop efficient routing and scheduling techniques for real-time application in dynamic, time-constrained fleet operations. The application area of primary interest here is the assignment of trucking vehicles in and around intermodal facilities. Local vehicle routing and scheduling problems with time window constraints have received relatively little attention before now. Problems faced by individual companies tended to be either fairly small or fairly static, allowing dispatchers to develop assignments relatively easily or to make small changes to assignments developed over time. However, a sharp increase in intermodal freight movements coupled with an increase in just in time freight shipments has led to the need for computer based routing and scheduling models to more efficiently manage the movement of drivers and goods. This problem is strongly connected to more general vehicle routing and dynamic vehicle allocation problems, but has some additional, unexplored features. The theme of the dissertation will be to explore the nature of this specific problem, to develop efficient methods to solve this problem and to examine its connection to related work in the literature.

Effect of Transportation Infrastructure on Proximate Commercial Property Values: An Hedonic Price Model

Rachel R. Weinberger

Department of City and Regional Planning, UC Berkeley

This dissertation analyzes the costs and benefits, as reflected in land value, accruing to owners of commercial private property in the vicinity of the relatively new light rail system in Santa Clara County. The California Supreme Court has recently ruled that benefits of public works projects, accruing to private property owners, may be considered in the calculus of damage assessment in a case of eminent domain. The need, therefore, of understanding the effect of light rail (LRT) on adjacent property value has taken on a new importance. Using hedonic price models, I demonstrate that property values within a certain distance of rail stations on the Santa Clara LRT system command higher rents than other properties in the county. Furthermore, beyond that distance, no statistically significant relationship between distance to rail and rental rates is observed. Hedonic models have been used to study the effects of rail investments on residential property, but there is a paucity of research on the 'other half' of the problem. This will be the most comprehensive study to date of LRT effects on commercial property.

Transportation Policy, Firm Inventory Behavior, and Productivity Growth

Chad Shirley

Department of Economics, UC Los Angeles

This project assesses the benefits of transportation policies from responses in firms' inventory and logistics behavior. A theoretical model formally links the cost, speed, and reliability of freight transportation with a firm's cost-minimizing inventory levels and logistics costs. Then, representative product and freight data are used to simulate logistics cost changes with the developed theory. Preliminary results show sizable reductions in logistics costs from a plausible system-wide infrastructure investment, ranging from $30 billion to $69 billion annually. The project will also econometrically estimate the relationships between inventory levels and the historical policies of highway infrastructure investment and trucking deregulation using disaggregate census and Federal Highway Administration data. In contrast to previous work on the benefits of transportation infrastructure investment, however, this specification will be informed by a behavioral microeconomic theory. The project will conclude by using the estimated relationship to analyze future transportation policies for their potential to improve industrial productivity.