University of California Transportation Center

UCTC Research Abstracts 1998-1999

Faculty Research:

The following projects, submitted by faculty members of the University of California, were evaluated and selected for funding based on a peer review process.

Measuring the Role of Transportation in Facilitating the Welfare-to- Work Transition
Prof.s Evelyn Blumenberg, Brian Taylor, Paul Ong
Public Policy and Social Research, University of California, Los Angeles
310-825-1803
eblumenb@ucla.edu

As a result of restructuring of the welfare system, millions of welfare recipients will enter the paid labor market over the next 5 years. Preliminary research and anecdotal evidence suggest that transportation services are crucial to helping welfare recipients move from public assistance to steady employment; however, little is known about the relationship between transportation and welfare use. This study will use a unique data set containing geographic distribution of jobs in low-wage firms, residential location of welfare recipients, and measures of transportation access, to look at the relationship between location, access, and welfare use. The data will be used to model relative effects of population characteristics, such as proximity to licensed child care centers, in predicting welfare use rates and labor market outcomes.

Key words: welfare-to-work

Consumer Response to Congestion Pricing on High Occupancy/Toll Lanes
Prof. David Brownstone and Thomas Golob, Department of Economics,
University of California, Irvine
949-824-6231
dbrownstone@uci.edu

High Occupancy/Toll (HOT) lanes have been proposed to provide funds for highway and transit improvements and to increase use of carpool lanes. Congestion pricing has also been proposed as a way to influence traffic demand and optimize flow. We use panel survey data on an 8-mile segment of the I-15 corridor in San Diego to build models of commuter-response; the survey includes attitudes to fairness and effectiveness of HOT lanes. Our choice models also use measurements of means and variations in travel times on both free and HOT lanes; we will test hypotheses about how attitudes are related to exposure and mode choice. Resulting models can be used to forecast demand and opinions about future projects. This research will be closely coordinated with an ongoing evaluation of the I-15 Congestion Pricing Project by San Diego State University for the San Diego Assoc. of Governments, FHWA, FTA, and Caltrans.
Key words: HOT lanes, congestion pricing

Public Transit and Welfare-to-Work: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Public Transit as a Mobility Option
Prof.s Robert Cervero and John Landis, Inst. of Urban and Regional Development,
University of California, Berkeley
510-642-0779
rob@ced.berkeley.edu

This research tests the proposition that improved transit access is an effective way to aid welfare recipients transition to employment. Using panel data, we will compile a sample of Californians on AFDC in 1993/94 and their employment status as of 1995/96. Change in welfare status will be associated with refined measures of transit service intensity and access for both transit and highway networks, controlling for neighborhood and socio- demographic differences. GIS techniques will be used to measure job opportunities, by occupation. Logit models will be used to conduct a discrete change analysis. GIS techniques and isochronic maps will be used to convey the core research findings.
Key words: welfare-to-work, transit access

Equitable Congestion Pricing Schemes
Prof. Carlos F. Daganzo, Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
510-642-3853
daganzo@ce.berkeley.edu

The advent of new technologies opens the door for traffic management strategies not possible a few years ago, in particular, the ability to sort masses of data in real time in order to institute discriminating pricing schemes that are both time- and vehicle- dependent. This project examines advanced schemes of this type with a focus on equity issues. We are looking for pricing approaches that would benefit original users of a transportation facility (before pricing), even if collected revenues are not returned to them, and where most of the original non-users would benefit as well. We will examine a pricing approach that encourages people to take turns. Similar approaches have shown benefits to everyone in the steady- state case, independent of income, trip purpose, and availability of alternative transport modes.

Key Words: Congestion pricing, time-dependent bottleneck, Pareto Efficient, morning commute

Towards an Accessible City: Removing Functional Barriers for the Blind and Vision-Impaired--A Case for Auditory Signs
Prof. Reginald G. Golledge, Dept. of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara
805-893-2731
marstonj@geog.ucsb.edu

Blind, vision-impaired, and other print-handicapped people are often denied equal access to transit and yet they often rely heavily on transit. Transfer points, mode changes, large building, and street intersections pose many functional barriers to this group of transit riders, and may prevent access to jobs and independence of mobility. Remote Infrared signage like Talking Signs have proven effective at enabling blind people to move in large environments, and have been tested in transit-stations, public buildings, bus stops, and street intersections. This research integrates these different tests into a seamless travel experience where subjects leave one travel mode, exit at a 3-level station, and prepare to board another transportation mode. They will identify fare boxes and ticket booths in the station, and exit to a nearby bus stop.

Key Words: Talking Signs, public transit, vision-impaired travel, modal transfer

Composition, Modes and Patterns of Freight Movement for Exporting High Technology Goods Produced in Silicon Valley
Prof. Mark Hansen, Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
510-642-2880
mhansen@euler.berkeley.edu

Freight transportation is integral to the high-tech industry in the Silicon Valley. In 1996, metro area San Jose exported $29.3 billion worth of goods and was ranked the largest exporter of metro areas in the U.S. The primary objective of this project is to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, how goods from the Silicon Valley are moved to the rest of the world.

Key Words: goods movement, high-tech goods, Silicon Valley, exports, intermodalism, traffic patterns

Time-dependent Equilibrium in Urban Commuting: An Exploratory Study
Prof. R. Jayakrishnan, Inst. of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine
949-824-2172
rjayakri@uci.edu

Whether time-dependent equilibria exist in urban networks remains an unresolved issue in urban planning. Activity-based and microsimulation-based approaches consider transportation networks to be dynamic in nature but do not expect them to exhibit time-dependent equilibrium of travel impedances across alternate travel paths and modes. Alternatively, Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) research often assumes the existence of such equilibria. No research has been done on existing urban commute patterns to see if such equilibria exists. We propose to explore time-dependent speed data from the Los Angeles area to find time-dependent alternate paths for the O-D pairs, and to see if they have close-enough travel times; we will assess to what extent the assumptions and predispositions of researchers, planners, demand modelers, and supply analysts approach real world situations.

Key Words: time-dependent equilibrium, O-D pairs, Dynamic Traffic Assignment, urban commuting (DTA)

A Case Study of Methods to Evaluate Long-Term Regional Welfare-to-Work Strategies in the Sacramento Region
Prof. Robert A. Johnston, Div. of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis
530-582-0700
rajohnston@ucdavis.edu

The success of welfare reform depends in large part on workers' ability to gain access to jobs and to supportive services such as daycare. Methods are needed that explicitly evaluate the basic transportation needs of low-income residents in the long-range planning and analysis of regional transportation alternatives. We propose to develop and apply such methods to the regional travel demand models of the Sacramento region for a number of future policy scenarios. The application of methods to these scenarios will address a number of public policy questions that have been raised recently about the equity effects of transit investment and pricing policies.

Key Words: welfare-to-work, transportation policy, regional travel demand models

The Impact of Organizational Setting on the Intermodal Distribution of Freight
Prof. Adib Kanafani, Inst. of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley
510-642-3585
kanafani@euler.berkeley.edu

The project will measure the relative economic advantages to the intermodal distribution of freight gained under different organizational environments. The different environments to be examined incorporate various levels of vertical integration within a firm: 1) the connecting modes share a contract, 2) the connecting modes are owned by the same firm, and 3) the connecting modes are completely independent. It is anticipated that more integration will result in lower transaction costs as well as possible losses of economies of scale. Data will be collected at intermodal facilities in California, e.g. Long Beach, and/or Oakland to construct econometric and/or logistic models of the cost function.

Key words: intermodal freight movement

Development of Highway Pavements Deterioration Models with Combined Laboratory and Field Data Sets: Year 2
Prof. Samer Madanat, Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
510-643-1084
madanat@ce.berkeley.edu

This research will develop improved models of pavement deterioration by combining laboratory data and data from in-service pavement sections. The statistical framework to be used explicitly accounts for the presence of various biases and makes provision for different levels of reliability in the two data sources. The advantage of this approach is that it exploits the strengths of each data source. For example, models can be developed that combine a high level of detail from laboratory data with the broad variability present in field data.

Key words: pavement deterioration models

Putting Behavior in Household Travel Behavior Data: An Interactive GIS-based Survey via the Internet
Prof. Michael G. McNally and Sean Doherty, Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine

949-824-8462
mmcnally@uci.edu

The project examines the behavioral process that results in revealed travel behavior by using a prototype computer-based household activity survey program that has been converted to JAVA, and integrated with a GIS, for use on the Internet. Respondents will record planned activity agendas and then update and schedule these on a daily basis. The feasibility of integrating GPS-recorded routing data into the survey process will be assessed. Together, these data will help identify fundamental inter-relationships among a range of revealed travel and activity participation variables, revealing critical variables, relationships, and rules that govern travel behavior.

Key words: travel behavior, activity diaries, internet survey

Is Accessibility the Solution for All? Segmenting the Market for Mobility and Accessibility Policies
Prof. Patricia L. Mokhtarian and Ilan Salomon, Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis
530-752-7062
plmokhtarian@ucdavis.edu

Improvements in accessibility are increasingly suggested as strategies to reduce vehicle travel, congestion, and related impacts. This approach assumes that individuals will reduce their travel if given the opportunity, as well as assuming that land-use changes will increase non-motorized trips; however, there are many indications that people travel more than needed and are not inclined to reduce trips. This study will test several hypotheses of the reasons for excess travel, and the relationship between attitudes to travel and response to access-enhancing strategies across different travel categories. The study assumes different market segments will respond to policies in different ways, and suggests that if a large segment of population prefers mobility over reduced travel, then policies to reduce travel will be less effective than hoped. Data from two Bay Area communities will be analyzed.

Key words: accessibility, congestion, travel demand, excess travel

Assessment of the Potential for Trip-Chaining, Ride-Sharing, and Car-Pooling Mandates to Reduce Energy Consumption & Vehicle Emissions
Prof. Will Recker, Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine
949-824-5642
wwrecker@uci.edu

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) have combined to define a broad range of transportation control measures (TCMs); however, it is not clear how much change in travel behavior can be achieved with incentive programs only. This project will empirically assess impacts of policy mandates on urban transportation energy consumption and emissions, and will concurrently measure corresponding changes in mobility/accessibility associated with these policies by building on the record of research in activity-based behavioral analysis of transportation policy options.

Key words: car-pooling, ride-sharing, trip-chaining, emissions, TCMs, transportation policy

Online Algorithms for Dynamic Dispatching of Commercial Vehicle Operations
Prof.s Amelia C. Regan and Sandra S. Irani, Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of California, Irvine

Online algorithms in which data is supplied to the algorithm incrementally and in which responses to the data are developed and implemented incrementally are of significant interest to the computer science community. Recently, there has been an interest in applying these techniques to the analysis of dynamic (and, by definition, online) transportation problems. The most natural application of this work is to dynamic commercial vehicle operations. This research develops models of commercial fleet operations and identifies and extends online or dynamic assignment algorithms suitable for application to the problems. It also applies the technique of competitive analysis to algorithms for the allocation of resources (trucks and service vehicles) to problems involving urban goods movement and service operations.

Key words: commercial vehicle operations, trucking operations, urban goods movement, dynamic fleet management, online algorithms, competitive analysis

University Transit-Pass Programs in the United States: A New Paradigm for Public Transit Finance?
Prof. Donald Shoup, Public Policy & Social Research, University of California, Los Angeles
310-825-5705
dshoup@ucla.edu

Some universities in the U.S. have devised a new way to finance public transit services for their communities. They contract with local transit operators to allow students, staff, and faculty use of public transit free of charge when they display a university photo-ID card. We will 1) survey universities providing fare-free transit passes for university students and personnel, 2) explore the potential for extending these programs to non-university settings, and 3) analyze the theoretical rationale for providing such programs to a defined population.
Key words: public transit, fare-free transit, university transit

Dissertation Research

The Four Dimensions of Rail Transit Performance: How Demographics, Politics, Administration and Finance Affect Outcomes
Nicholas S. Compin, Inst. of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine
949-725-9409
nscompin@ea.oac.uci.edu

The project will develop a framework for measuring performance of public rail transit systems using regression analysis, mail-out surveys, and in-depth interviews to gain an understanding of how the selected independent variables affect established transit system performance indicators at the macro level. Each of the four dimensions being evaluated--demographic, political, administrative, and financial--will provide information about the effects of transit demand, intergovernmental relations, administrative decision- making processes, and sources and types of funding on performance.

Key words: public rail transit, transit system performance indicators

A Household Survey via an Internet GIS for Models of Activity Scheduling
Ming-Sheng Lee, Inst. of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine
949-824-6571
mingshel@uci.edu

The two-fold purpose of this project is to build a production system model of household activity scheduling using a GIS via the Internet; the system model is a rule-based system that depicts how activities are initially scheduled and dynamically changed during execution. Transactional opportunistic problem solving is the framework adopted for simulating dynamic scheduling behavior. The model will be verified by comparing model outputs to activity patterns recorded in the existing activity/travel diaries.

Key words: household activity scheduling, GIS, dynamic scheduling, activity/travel diaries

The American Boulevard: An Historical Investigation of the Public Management, Built Form, and Social Use of Olmsted's Brooklyn Parkways
Elizabeth Macdonald, Inst. of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley
510-642-4749 or 510-642-2930

This is a study of the historical evolution of two exemplary multiple-roadway boulevards--Eastern Parkway and Ocean Parkway- -in Brooklyn, New York with the objective of identifying an institutional model for public management of multi-functional streets. These parkways carry both fast- and slow-moving traffic as well as provide pedestrian and recreational use on tree-lined malls separating the roadways. Such streets are not built in the United States today because they are considered unsafe. However, urban designers are reconsidering their use as alternatives to standard arterial streets because they can handle large traffic volumes without creating sharp divisions between neighborhoods. The project will contribute substantial new knowledge about Olmsted's contribution to city planning in terms of the long-term functional aspects of his street designs.

Key words: urban design, parkways, multi-functional streets, city planning, Frederick Law Olmsted

A Dynamic Household Alternative-Fuel Vehicle Demand Model Using Revealed and Stated Transaction Information
Hongyan Sheng, Dept. of Economics, University of California, Irvine
949-824-6571
hsheng@translab.its.uci.edu

Stated Preference (SP) data is needed to estimate future alternative-fuel vehicle (AFV) demand for automobile manufacturers, public utility companies, and planning agencies. However, SP data may give biased estimates of household real market behavior. The focus of this project is the development of a dynamic state and revealed preference vehicle transaction model which adjusts for the possible biases of pure SP or RP data. The models developed here will incorporate household vehicle type choices as well as transaction choices. A preliminary study provides the basis for further joint estimation of the SP and RP data; recent applications of mixed logit models provides feasible ways to jointly estimate SP and RP data as well. The large panel data sets collected by the California Alternative-Fuel Vehicle Demand Forecast Project will be used.

Key words: Stated preference, alternative-fuel vehicles, revealed preference

A New Statistical Framework for Estimating Carbon Monoxide Impacts at Intersections
Yu Meng, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis
Advisor: Debbie Niemeier

Current EPA guidelines use intersection level of service to determine whether detailed modeling of carbon monoxide (CO) impacts will be required. However, intersections can exhibit relatively similar averaged stopped delay (ASD) per vehicle (i.e., the same LOS) but produce very different levels of predicted CO concentrations. In this dissertation I will use a hypothetical intersection, actual field meteorological data and estimated emission factors to develop a new statistical framework for CO analysis. The proposed statistical framework will use not only ASD but also other major modeling input variables, such as defining factors in identifying those intersections that will require detailed CO analysis. The new statistical framework will be a sophisticated and analytically powerful tool for predicting potential exceedances of NAAQS at the intersection design level.

Key Words: Carbon Monoxide, level of service

Time-Dependent Traffic Flow Features at Freeway Merge Bottlenecks
Robert L. Bertini, UC Berkeley
Advisor: Michael Cassidy

The objective of this research is to examine the evolution of traffic from freely-flowing to queued conditions at freeway bottlenecks formed by merge junctions. Preliminary research has found that queues triggered by the rising flows of freeway and on-ramp vehicles form more than one kilometer downstream of the merge and that these queued formations reduce long-run bottleneck flows. This underscores the need to study further the traffic flow in freeway and on-ramp vehicles form more than one kilometer downstream of the merge.. The research will analyze the traffic features that prevail before and after queueing and will seek to identify the underlying causes of these observed features. The diagnostic tools used in this study will be curves of cumulative vehicle arrival versus time and cumulative occupancy versus time, constructed from data measured by neighboring freeway loop detectors. Once suitably transformed, these cumulative curves provide the measurement resolution necessary for identifying the notable, and as of yet largely unknown, time-dependent bottleneck features.

Key Words: Freeway, capacity, bottleneck, merge

Past and Present Perceptions of Traffic Congestion
Asha Weinstein, UC Berkeley
Advisor: Elizabeth Deakin

Traffic congestion is the most talked-about transportation issue among the public, transportation professions, and government representative alike. Traffic safety and congestion are probably the two leading issues for transportation planning research. My dissertation will explore how the concept of traffic congestion has been perceived over time. Behind all the public and profession discussions of traffic congestion—and the public policies claiming to reduce it—lie disparate assumptions about what congestion actually is, what causes it, who might be responsible for causing it, and what could or should be done about it. My research will explore these underlying assumptions and perceptions in the United States during the period 1870 to 1940, and compare these findings to current perceptions. The historical material will illuminate the roots of today’s perceptions and also show the extent to which perceptions have or have not changed with time. I will rely on methods of cultural history to analyze two bodies of material: professional literature on traffic congestion, and written and pictorial records of all types from one case study city, New York.

Key Words: Traffic congestion, transportation history

Evaluating the Welfare Effects of High Occupancy Lanes (HOTLs)

Eugene J. Kim, Department of Urban Planning, UCLA
Advisor: Brian Taylor, UCLA

To improve high occupancy vehicle lane (HOVL) performance, planners have recently focused on the prospects of selling excess peak HOVL capacity to single-occupant vehicles (SOVs) . These hybrid expressways, popular coined HOT lanes (for high occupancy-toll), are essentially HOVLS that reserve priority access to multi-person vehicles and charge a toll to all other vehicles. What distinguishes HOTLS from conventional toll roads is that (1) they are retrofitted into existing urban highways, (2) they must implement time-of-day pricing to preserve congestion-free service throughout the day. Because there are so few HOTLs currently in operation, little is know about the consumer welfare implications of converting HOVLSs into HOTLs. The primary objective of this dissertation is to use cost benefit analysis to compare the social benefits of converting an HOVL into a HOTL with the “no conversion” scenario. This analysis will produce empirical findings and policy recommendations.

Key Words: High Occupancy Toll Lanes, High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes, High Occupancy Vehicles, Cost benefit analysis, congestion pricing

Decision Theory for Performance Evaluation of New Technologies Incorporating Institutional Issues: Application to Traffic Control Implementation

Stephen P. Mattingly, UC Irvine
Advisor: R. Jayakrishnan

The proposed research develops a flexible approach that allows full consideration of the myriad issues involved in evaluation of transportation projects, especially complex projects involving new technologies. By integrating the multiple-attribute value function (MAVF) technique with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the proposed research introduces a new, scaling approach through use of a “linear scaling proxy.” Additionally, the proposed approach will identify an “overall worth” for a project. This “overall worth” provides decision-makers with a quantitative value that they can use to compare different projects or estimate and compare hypothetical results. The methodology simplifies the process for including institutional issues into the final results of an evaluation.

Key Words: evaluation, multi-attribute value function, analytic hierarchy process

Understanding Activity Rescheduling: How do People Respond to Unexpected Events in their Daily Lives?

Qiuzi Chen, UC Davis
Advisor: Ryuichi Kitamura

Current activity scheduling and rescheduling models lack a module that will adjust original schedules in response to unexpected events. This research results will provide insights in the area of behavioral science and form a theoretical basis for modeling activity rescheduling. Data will come from an experiment. In stage 1, information on activities and trips respondents make on the day before the experiment will be collected. In stage 2, unexpected events will be introduced and the respondents will be asked to change their schedules and to “think out loud” while doing so. Protocol analysis will reveal what information is used in people’s minds when rescheduling, at what frequency and in what order. Statistical analysis will identify what factors affecting activities rescheduling are significant.

Key Words: activity schedules, unexpected events, cognitive processes