UCTC Research Abstracts 1997-1998

Dissertation Research

Faculty Research:

The following projects, submitted by faculty members of the University of California, were evaluated and selected for funding based on a peer review process.  

Understanding How Land Use Affects Travel Behavior: A Revealed Preference/Stated Preference Approach
Marlon G. Boarnet and Randall Crane,
Institute of Transportation Studies,University of California, Irvine

This study proposes two different methodologies to fill the gaps in our knowledge of how land use policy can influence travel behavior. The first is a revealed preference study that examines how variations in travel behavior are associated with different land use patterns. The second methodology is based on state preferences obtained in contingent valuation surveys. A comparison of the two will shed light on the prospects for using land use as transportation policy, but will also help clarify the key behavioral parameters in the link between land use and travel behavior.

EZEV Adaptive Transit: A Global Assessment, with a North American Emphasis
Robert Cervero
Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley

This research will create an organizing and conceptual framework for developing adaptive transit services as well as evaluate the performance and productivity impacts of various classes of adaptive services already in use. Statistical and case study investigations will identify the factors contributing to high productivity. Among the defining features of adaptive transit are: expeditious transferring; demand-responsive deployment of services; door-to-door and short waits; and real-time information flows. The project will include a global investigation of transit services, a performance assessment of North American adaptive transit; and case studies of institutional, regulatory, and pricing reforms of successful adaptive transit services.

Assessment of the Perception of California Fleet Operators Regarding Transportation Problems, Expectations, and Solutions
Thomas F. Golob
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

Project objective is to design, conduct and analyze a survey of fleet operators to elicit: 1) characteristics of the site, 2) perceptions of transportation infrastructure and operations, 3) perceived difficulties using the road system and other problems, 4) forecasts of trends in congestion, 5) awareness of transport system improvements, and 6) needs and expectations of problem solutions and technological innovations. Multivariate statistical analyses will be used to capture perceptions and segment them based on spatial locations, business sectors, uses of specific freeways and important generation and attraction sites (seaports, railhead, airports, etc.).

A Comparison of New Freeway Truck-Only Lanes, HOV Lanes, and HOT (HOV plus Tolled SOV) Lanes in the Sacramento Region
Robert A. Johnston
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

As evidence mounts that HOV lanes will not produce expected reductions in congestion or emissions, alternatives increasingly will be sought. We propose to compare a region wide system of new HOV lanes to high occupancy toll lanes and truck-only lanes in the Sacramento region. We will simulate travel, emissions, and consumer welfare effects of the scenarios using Sacramento regional travel demand models; we will develop a model to capture economic effects of changes in truck travel. The intent is to develop and apply a freight economic efficiency measure to a regional travel demand model that can be readily used by MPOs. Ideally, this research will serve as an example to MPOs as they develop freight planning procedures.

Evaluating the Effects of Smart Public/Personal Transportation Modes on Household Mobility and Activity Space
Kenneth S. Kurani
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

This research will produce user evaluations and subsequent market assessments of public/personal transit services by examining the specific application of an intelligent vehicle technology to smart station cars (cars owned by transit districts or third-party service providers and used by transit riders to and from transit stations) at BART stations. We will conduct interactive stated response interviews to evaluate travel, activity choice, and lifestyle impacts of such a system; using focus groups, we will bring together several households to construct their image of public/personal transit to reveal what elements and services users value, how they construct these values, and whether they consider such systems to be competing with or complementing conventional transit. This research will be linked to a larger station car research agenda already underway at UC Davis. 

The 1996 Speed Limit Experiment--Some Surprising Results
Charles Lave
Dept. of Economics, University of California, Irvine

In November 1995, Congress passed legislation allowing states to raise speed limits. Widespread predictions were that this would increase highway fatalities; in fact, there was a decrease. Using state-by-state data since the limit was raised, this research will try to sort out the effects, taking into account that states introduced the new limit at different times, changed limits by different amounts, and that the proportion of highways with new limits differs across states. I will also have access to data as a member of the NRC panel that will carry out the review of the effects of speed limits that Congress has recently requested.

Measuring the Impact of Built Environment in Bus Stop Crime
Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Los Angeles

The purpose of this study is to present a more comprehensive framework for understanding how specific built environment features of bus stops relate to bus stop crime. Bus stops are the most common settings of transit crime and yet most crime prevention strategies neglect the bus stop environment. Using crime data for 1994 and 95 from the Los Angeles MTA, we propose to test pre- identified environmental attributes of the ten most dangerous bus stops in the city of Los Angeles for their ability to predict bus stop crime. The presence of specific built environment features will be examined using quantitative research methods to determine if these features aggravate or ameliorate bus stop crime. The investigation will lead to proposals and guidelines for safer bus stops.

Development of Highway Pavements Deterioration Models with Combined Laboratory and Field Data Sets (Year 1)
Samer Madanat
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley

The objective is to develop improved models of pavement deterioration by combining laboratory data and data from in-service pavement sections. The statistical framework to be used explicitly accounts for the presence of various biases and makes provisions for different levels of reliability in the two data sources. The advantage of this approach is that it exploits the strengths of each data source; for example, it is possible to develop models that combine the high level of detail available in laboratory data with the broader amount of variability present in field data. .

Is Accessibility the Solution for All? Segmenting the Market for Mobility and Accessibility Policies
Patricia L. Mokhtarian
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

Increasingly, strategies to improve accessibility are suggested to reduce vehicular travel, congestion, and related impacts. This approach assumes that individuals will reduce their travel if it is an option, and that land-use changes will increase non-motorized trips over auto use. However, numerous indications are that people travel more and not less, whatever the options. We propose to study several hypotheses of the reasons for excess travel, and the relationship between attitudes toward travel and responses to strategies to enhance accessibility. The investigation will include various travel categories from several California metropolitan areas, under the assumption that different market segments exhibit different relationships and will therefore respond to policy measures differently.

Modeling the Dynamics of Activity Scheduling via a GIS
Michael G. McNally
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

The goal of this research is to develop a GIS-interfaced CMP which can be used to examine the process of human activity scheduling. The feasibility of such a model has been successfully demonstrated by Kwan in prior UCTC-supported research. Once the model is developed, the model outcome will be compared with the revealed activity scheduling behavior. The viability of connecting our model to an external information source, such as the World Wide Web, will be explored. Both the conceptual framework of such an ATIS and a prototype will be defined.

Transport Access, Neighborhood Externalities, and Minority Youth Employment
John M. Quigley
School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley

This project is a continuation of a large-scale empirical analysis of the link between access to employment, the social isolation of neighbors, and the employment outcomes for youth, by race and sex. The project investigates the importance of transportation relative to measures of neighborhood externalities that affect employment and idleness among teenagers. We will utilize a unique data set, developed at the US Census Bureau in the past year, to link micro data on individuals to neighborhood data at the census tract level, and transport access data at the traffic analysis zone level. Models will be estimated for New York and Los Angeles using approximately 90,000 observations of employment and idleness outcomes, socioeconomic data of individual youth, their families, neighborhoods, and transportation circumstances.

Travel Behavior on a Congestion Pricing Project: Route 91 Express
Will Recker
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

In previous studies we have developed a model to analyze optimal temporal and spatial paths for household members as they complete a prescribed agenda of activities. Further we have incorporated a behavioral structure into a mathematical procedure that optimizes household activities and travel paths, using data from the metropolitan Portland, Oregon area. Preliminary results show potential improvement in spatio-temporal accessibility for some households using personal automobiles. We now plan to extend our research to include public transit modes such as the Portland Metro.

A Dynamic Dispatching, Load Acceptance and Pricing Strategies for Carrier Fleet Operations: Potential for Improved Freight Mobility
Amelia C. Regan
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

This work is concerned with uses of real-time information on vehicle locations, characteristics of service requests, and traffic network conditions to improve the efficiency of freight mobility; it identifies and investigates dynamic dispatching, load acceptance, and pricing strategies for the efficient management of carrier fleet operations. The primary focus is on development of operational strategies, including load acceptance, assignment and re-assignment heuristics, and the testing of these through extensive simulation experiments. A secondary focus is cultivation of relationships with local trucking companies to create an information exchange.

Evaluating the Use of Personal Parking Meters for Commercial Vehicles in Los Angeles
Donald Shoup
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Los Angeles

The City of Los Angeles has a pilot program to allow use of Personal Parking Meters (PPMs) for loading and unloading of commercial vehicles. The PPMs are the size of a small calculate and are programmed by the city when operators pre-pay a use fee for up to four hours for loading zones, no-parking zones, and alleys--well over the enforced 30-minute commercial vehicle free parking limit; the PPM is visible in the vehicle window as it meters the pre-paid time. Our research will evaluate the PPM programs contribution to efficient loading and unloading of commercial vehicles in congested areas that lack sufficient off-street loading zones. We will interview PPM users, businesses in the loading zone areas, traffic enforcement personnel, and trucking company representatives to estimate potential increases in efficiency of deliveries and goods movement.

Travel Behavior on a Congestion Pricing Project: Route 91 Express
Kenneth A. Small
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

This project investigates travel behavior in response to an innovative expressway project built in 1995 within the median strip of the Riverside Freeway in California; it is the first use of congestion pricing in the U.S. And one of very few such projects in the world. The project will study traveler behavior to see if reactions expected in the congestion pricing literature are in fact taking place. The result of a re-survey mail questionnaire taken as part of another project will result in a panel data set, offering improvement in statistical accuracy and tracking any changes in pricing structure or travel environment occurring between the two surveys.

Role of Government in Advanced Technology R&D
Daniel Sperling
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

The automotive industry is seriously pursuing a range of new electric-drive propulsion technologies; some federal, local, and state governments have made substantial commitment to supporting and funding these next generation technologies. Relying on case studies, interviews, and evaluations of previous recent technology transfer and R&D initiatives, this project will address the appropriate role of government in that support, especially in R&D. The broad objective is to determine the most effective and appropriate strategy to accelerate development and commercialization of high-efficiency, low-polluting propulsion technologies and fuels.

Transit Dependence, Civil Rights, and the Evolving Role of Public Transit in U.S. Cities
Brian Taylor
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Los Angeles

This research look at the legal and policy implications of the role of transit as a social service for the poor, elderly, and disabled. By reviewing trends in transit ridership demographics, and examining three recent federal civil rights lawsuits against the principal transit operators in New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles, we will examine the policy balancing act cities face as transit's social service role comes up against the resistance of the electorate to redistribution policies and programs.

The Politics of Congestion Pricing: Case Studies of Two California Project
Martin Wachs
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley

Congestion pricing, a strategy for travel demand management, is popular among scholars and federal officials but remains very controversial in local and state political arenas. To better understand the political influences on congestion pricing, we will study two California congestion pricing projects: State Route 91 congestion pricing lanes, which have been successfully implemented since late 1995, and the San Francisco Bay Bridge Congestion Pricing Project, which remains stalled for complex political reasons. Through the case studies we hope to identify factors that are critical for successful congestion pricing projects in light of California's politics.

Faculty Seed Grants

Estimating PM Emissions From In-Use Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles
Daniel P.Y. Chang
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

Data on diesel truck emissions are limited and inadequate for effective and efficient regulation. The objective of this research is to initiate a research program in truck emissions. We will focus on in-use particulate emissions of diesel trucks to develop estimates of in-use smoke opacity deterioration and to correlate smoke opacity measurements with PM emissions. This project will be a starting point for an expanded research program to model diesel truck and fleet emissions and analyze strategies for reducing those emissions.

Impacts of Congestion Pricing on Trucking Industry
Martin Wachs
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley

Recent technological advances have made congestion pricing or peak-period pricing a feasible transportation demand management tool. Previous studies of congestion pricing impacts have focused on private auto travel. Since commercial vehicles play an important role in the economy of urban areas, the actual and potential responses of these vehicles to peak period pricing is needed. The objective of this study is to develop a framework for a larger study to collect data from truckers using toll facilities; this study will use existing databases of truck registration, fleet characteristics, and truck movement patterns. Conceptual microeconomic models of truck operators will be developed, and a survey designed to investigate how truckers incorporate road price information into routing and scheduling of truck movements, and into their customer charges.

Lead Time, Travel Behavior, and the Demand for Accessible Transportation
Mark Hansen
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley

This research explores how minimum lead time needed to access a transportation system interacts with activity schedules and preferences of potential users. Lead time is the time elapsed between the decision to make a trip, and when that trip is made. Minimum lead time requirements are often used by designers to manage demand for paratransit services, even though impacts on potential users are not well understood. This study focuses on provision of transportation services for people with disabilities to formulate a theory of how travel behavior of disabled travelers is affected by access to paratransit and mainline transit services with varying lead times. Insights gained from exploratory interviews, theoretical analysis, and demand modeling will be used to evaluate strategies for transit providers to offer better service to disabled travelers.

 

Dissertation Research

Incorporating Residential Choice into Travel Behavior-Land Use Interaction Research: A Conceptual Model with Methodologies for Identifying Causal Relationship
Michael N. Bagley
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis

One of the most important spatial interaction modeling components is residential choice. In choosing a place to live, a household may evaluate a dwelling unit and/or neighborhood based on several interrelated characteristics, such as: housing type, neighborhood type, distance to work, distance to shopping and other household-related activities, car ownership, and commute mode choice. This project examines the underlying factors motivating an individual or household to select a particular residential location, to better understand the market for various neighborhood types (neotraditional, suburban, etc...).

 

Important Causative Factors in Traffic Accidents
Wan-Hui Chen
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

This project develops a systematic approach to analyze driver injury severity using log-linear models, and to study accident frequencies using Poisson and negative binomial models. A variable pre-selection procedure is also proposed for significant factors in accidents. The approach can be used to build accident predictive models for improving traffic safety.

 

Civil Rights Law and Public Transit Planning
Mark Garrett
Urban Planning, University of California, Los Angeles

This dissertation explores the impact of civil rights law on regional transit planning through a series of case studies. Federal law prohibits transit operators from discriminating against minorities in the provision of transit services. Policies designed to attract new suburban commuters, most of whom are white, may have a disproportionate impact on service to existing inner city riders, many of whom are minorities. This research analyzes the legal and policy arguments advanced in recent federal civil rights litigation against local transit operators in New York, Los Angeles, and several other cities alleging that the agencies' fare subsidy programs and/or new rail construction programs discriminated against poor and minority transit riders. These cases represent an emerging area of planning and civil rights law as well as broadening the public debate over the distributional consequences of transit investments.

 

A Traffic Movement Identification Scheme and Microscopic Analysis of Catastrophes in Traffic
Seungmin Kang
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

This research investigates the dynamic variation of traffic variables under varying traffic conditions, and identifies key aspects of the relationship between catastrophes in traffic and car-following models, but primarily with time-variations in speed, flow and occupancy in traffic flow. Analysis is based on plausible microscopic car-following models; it includes performance of the already developed model incorporating the correct and justifiable aspects of catastrophe. An extensive freeway data set from I-880 is used to develop and test the model. Relationships between two consecutive-moving vehicles, and between far-ahead and lagged vehicles are  incorporated into the conventional car-following traffic model to simulate near-simultaneous car-following traffic behavior.

 

Welfare Analysis of Congestion Pricing with a focus on Commercial Vehicles
Kazuya Kawamura
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley

The main aim of this study is to conduct a welfare analysis of congestion pricing projects for various groups of commercial vehicles using empirically derived demand and supply functions. Using an analysis framework based on microeconomic theory, the study provides quantitative answers to the following questions: 1) What are the impacts of congestion pricing on the operation of commercial vehicles? 2) Will congestion pricing make particular segments of the commercial vehicles industry better-off (or worse-off)? 

 

The Utility-Maximizing Activity-Participation and Travel-Related Decisions of Households
Kara Kockelman
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley

This research derives and estimates demand for activity participation and other travel-related goods which is intimately linked to the well-developed theories of utility maximization. Two difficulties often inherent in the modeling of travel - the discrete nature of many travel-related demands, and the incorporation of a time budget, not just a financial one - are dealt with explicitly. The demand functions are derived from flexible functional forms of the indirect utility function. Continuous, though latent, demand levels will underlie a simultaneously estimated system of seemingly-unrelated Poisson regressions. Measures of consumer surplus, in units of time and money, will be deduced.

 

Where Do People Walk? The Impacts of Neighborhood Differences in Urban Form on Pedestrian Activity
Juliet Lamont
Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley

The New Urbanists argue for urban design that increases pedestrian activity to simultaneously reduce adverse impacts of the automobile while stimulating greater public interaction and encourage a higher quality of life. But is there a basis for their claim that increased pedestrian activity will lead ultimately to a higher quality of life? This research examines interactions of urban design and pedestrian activity, using regional data analysis and neighborhood case studies, to evaluate that claim. Both qualitative and quantitative analytic approaches are employed to capture the complexity of urban form variables and their inter-relations; variables are analyzed across a range of scales to avoid a common methodological weakness of previous research in this area. The aim is to identify which variables are critical in the design of more livable urban neighborhoods, and to serve as a potential prototype for a much larger sample of neighborhoods nationwide.

On Whom the Toll Falls: A Theory of Network Financing
David M. Levinson
Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley

Policy makers face roadway congestion, air pollution from autos, and lack of resources to finance new infrastructure; transport economists often suggest road pricing--charging tolls for use of a part of the roadway network--as a solution to these problems. While tolls are commonly used to finance expensive facilities such as tunnels and bridges, they are less commonly used to finance streets and highways, which typically are funded by taxes and general revenues. This research identifies critical technological, economic, and political factors associated with the choice of finance mechanism for different parts of the roadway network. In contrast to research which focuses on optimal congestion prices, this project analyzes political and economic implications of alternative financing and organizational structures.

The Social Costs of Electric-Drive Vehicles in Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.
Timothy E. Lipman
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

The research explores several categories of monetary and non-monetary social costs associated with the use of light-duty electric-drive vehicles (EVs) in Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. Cost categories analyzed are: paid costs for vehicles, fuels, maintenance, and infrastructure; air pollution-related health costs, climate change damage costs, energy system-related costs, and vehicle noise costs. Three different vehicle types are considered: battery EVs, hydrogen-powered fuel cell EVs, and gasoline-powered fuel cell EVs. Social costs associated with use of these vehicles are compared on an annualized basis compared to corresponding conventional vehicle use. Finally, three 50-year scenarios are considered based on improvements in fuel economy, a transition from use of batteries to hydrogen fuel cells, and transition to gasoline-powered fuel cells.

 

Optimizing Intermodal Operations over the Rail Segment of Truck-Rail Intermodal Operations
Alexandra Newman
Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California, Berkeley

Truck-rail intermodal operations provide door-to-door service in which a freight container is transported by truck locally and via train for the long-haul portion of the journey between intermodal terminals. When transporting goods at least 500 miles, trains afford many advantages over trucks in terms of lower fuel consumption, accident rates, and driver requirements, for example. However, because of improper train scheduling, transit times are lengthy, and long-haul trucking continues to dominate the market. This research consists of developing a model to improve the operational efficiency of trains. I address the problem of when to send direct trains (between each origin destination pair), and which containers to place on these trains according to how quickly they must arrive at their destinations. Because the model contains thousands of variables representing these decisions, straightforward methods with existing software produce poor results. Therefore, I am exploring more sophisticated characteristics of the problem structure and should yield near optimal solutions.