University of California Transportation Center

UCTC Research Abstracts 1996-1997

Faculty Research:

The following projects, submitted by faculty members of the University of California, were evaluated and selected for funding based on a peer review process.

Econometric Modeling for Intrametropolitan Transportation Analysis
Marlon G. Boarnet

This project will help resolve current debates about the land-use and economic effects of transportation by developing an econometric framework for systematically examining relevant questions. We will focus on adapting econometric techniques that can handle the spatial interaction inherent in submetropolitan economic and demographic data. Our model will be used to test hypotheses on the land use, population, and employment effects of major transportation projects.

EZEV Hybrid Electric Vehicles for California
Andrew F. Burke

Through this project we will assess the technology requirements for designing and marketing hybrid electric vehicles in California. Hybrids will receive partial ZEV credit depending on their all-electric range while electric vehicles (EZEVs ) will receive full ZEV credit. Through computer simulations of hybrid electric vehicles using advanced engines, we will determine engine/generator, fuel cell, and reformer technology requirements for designing electric hybrid vehicles.

Accessibility and Polycentric Growth in the San Francisco Bay Area and Metropolitan Chicago: 1980-1990
Robert Cervero

This project will examine the effects of regional growth, particularly polycentric development, on accessibility levels for different types of work centers and socio-economic groups between 1980-1990. The data comes from the San Francisco Bay Area and metropolitan Chicago. Through the project we will develop two measures of work-trip accessibility, one based on opportunities and the other on actual trip interchanges. Further we will correlate differences in accessibility levels over time, stratified by classes of employment centers, occupations, and demographics, with trends in subcentering.

LA Freeways: Regional Benefits are Whose Costs?
Joseph F. DiMento

This project will assess how freeways affect quality of life differently among various groups based on race, ethnicity, income level, and gender. We will consider both perceived and objectively measured costs and benefits, and try to explain those differential effects in quality of life. For our data we will focus on the Century Freeway/Transitway (I-105) and the Long Beach Extension (I-710), using new panel surveys, interviews with residents in highway corridors and community leaders and officials, and existing archival data.

Assessing Transit and Pedestrian Roles in Accessibility
Thomas F. Golob

We will further develop an activity-based travel forecasting model that accomplishes the following tasks: (1) explain travel times for different modes in terms of activity durations; (2) analyze tradeoffs between in-home and out-of-home activities in order to predict telecommuting and teleshopping behavior; (3) study interactions between household members in terms of activity participation and travel; (4) use mobility choices to explain car ownership decisions; and (5) use neighborhood- and network-based accessibility indices to explain activity participation and travel generation.

Implementing the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act
Judith Innes

Agencies need models and guidelines to implement new provisions for collaborative, multimodal, multiobjective transportation planning under the 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act. To help inform such decisions we will do conduct the following research tasks: (1) study the process being developed by the Bay Area's Metropolitan Transportation Commission, which is the forerunner among metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) in developing partnerships among key agencies and interest groups; (2) conduct a nationwide survey of states and MPOs regarding current techniques; and (3) interview state and MPO representatives that have innovative programs.

Restructuring and Revitalizing"Gray Area" Transportation Corridors
Allan Jacobs

We plan to study the current state of major urban arterials, developed to accommodate increasing big-city traffic volumes during the late 1940s to the early 1960s, prior to widespread urban freeway construction. These roads currently represent underutilized transportation and land use resources in what are called "gray areas" of large cities-resources that could help restructure and revitalize major urban corridors, often by using multifunctional roadways associated with adjacent land use. After identifying and classifying this type of street, we will document their history and functions, then we will anticipate future "recycled" roles for these roads given that any major new freeway construction is unlikely.

Economic Balance of Intercity Transportation Systems
Adib Kanafani

The state of California will soon face an important transportation decision: whether to invest in a high speed rail system or whether to expand highway and air transportation capacity. We consider whether high speed rail, perhaps the costliest intercity transportation mode, can be justified based on its lower social costs. Specifically, we will study whether the direct and indirect subsidies given to alternative modes-mostly in the form of unpaid-for social costs, but also including infrastructure costs that are not fully recovered-should be disregarded when making comparative evaluations. Thus we will assess the costs and cost recovery involved in highway, air, and high speed rail travel.

Vehicle of Betterment: The Automobile, the Roadway, and the System of Property Rights
Daniel Klein and Charles Lave

In this project we will produce a book on property rights solutions to road transportation problems. These solutions are possible because the transaction costs of analyzing road transportation on a private-property basis have been vastly reduced by technological advancements including electronic road pricing, remote sensing, and video monitoring. Main chapters will focus on toll roads, auto emissions, and transit. We will also cover broad social and cultural issues like auto ownership trends, commuter behavior, suburban sprawl, and urban form.

Examination and Evaluation of Environmental Attributes in High-Crime Bus Stops
Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris

Most crime prevention strategies neglect the most common location of transit crime: bus stops. Therefore we will identify the various environmental attributes that can affect transit passengers' security while at the bus stop and examine their role in ameliorating or aggravating crime. We will look at the ten most dangerous bus stops in Los Angeles based on crime data during 1994-1995. Through structured field observations at bus stops and interviews with passengers, transit police, and merchants of surrounding buildings we will determine the variables (such as land uses, crowding, spatial layout, visibility) that contribute to crime. Ultimately we plan to propose guidelines for safer bus stops.

Trip Generation and the Temporal Stability of Travel Patterns
Michael G. McNally

For this project we plan to conduct an activity-based assessment of trip generation that integrates household activities, land use distributions, regional demographics, and transportation networks. Our model will recognize the complexity of travel behavior in terms of spatial and temporal constraints, household interactions, transport accessibility, and its inherent activity-derived basis. We will use at least two extensive databases: 1976 and 1991 data from Orange County, and 1985 and 1994 data from Portland, Oregon.

A Comparison of Multiple Neighborhood Structures
Debbie Niemeier

We propose to refine and apply two accessibility measures using microlevel neighborhood travel and infrastructure information. Using three neighborhoods in Seattle and five in San Francisco, we will develop a utility-based disaggregate measure of accessibility using the denominator of the logit model combined with compensating variation and an aggregate measure based on the Hanson and Schwab measure of accessibility. These two measures-one utility-based and one objective-will be used to test hypotheses on the relationship between neighborhood structure and microlevel travel and accessibility.

Employment Access, Neighborhood Externalities, and Youth Employment
John M. Quigley

We seek to answer at least two questions regarding the spatial distribution of jobs and households and labor market outcomes for low-wage workers. First, what is the significance of transport access to job opportunities relative to residents' exposure to neighborhood influences? Second, are the spatial effects that have been documented only a reflection of other household choices rather than external influences? To answer these questions we will study youth labor markets in the seventy-three largest metropolitan areas based on 1990 census data

An Activity-Based Measure of Accessibility for Transit and Automobile Modes
Will Recker

In previous studies we have developed a model to analyze optimal temporal and spatial paths for household members as they complete a prescribed agenda of activities. Further we have incorporated a behavioral structure into a mathematical procedure that optimizes household activities and travel paths, using data from the metropolitan Portland, Oregon area. Preliminary results show potential improvement in spatio-temporal accessibility for some households using personal automobiles. We now plan to extend our research to include public transit modes such as the Portland Metro.

The High Cost of Minimum Parking Requirements
Donald Shoup

Minimum parking requirements create costs for developers and subsidies for cars. This project will introduce a new methodology to measure these costs and subsidies. We have conducted a preliminary analysis of parking structures built at UCLA between 1977 and 1991, and plan to further this analysis at other UC campuses. Further we will study the effects of parking impact fees-when cities permit developers to pay a fee instead of providing required parking. Finally we will relate information on trip generation rates with the cost of parking requirements to try to estimate the resulting parking subsidy per trip. By determining average trip lengths we will try to estimate the parking subsidy per mile driven for particular automobile trips.

Recharging Behavior of Future Electric Vehicle Users
Daniel Sperling

Electric vehicles remain the principal strategy for attaining air quality standards in most of California. However one of the principal barriers to EV introduction into the market is the absence of efficient, public EV recharging facilities, whose construction will require substantial capital outlays. Currently little is known about EV recharging behavior such as when and where EV users will recharge, how much they're willing to pay, how much they will use, and what kind of recharging services they'll need. Thus we propose to investigate recharging behavior of future EV drivers in order to effectively provide an electricity supply and away-from-home recharging infrastructure.

Measuring Social Equity in Public Transit: A Case Study
Brian Taylor

Public transit is supposed to provide mobility for the disadvantaged. But its success in doing so remains questionable, especially regarding low-income travelers. Several civil rights organizations have brought lawsuits against transit systems in Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York over their relative treatment of poor and nonwhite transit users. These lawsuits focus on transit policies to attract discretionary riders, such as high cost commuter services, fares that do not vary with distance, and service extensions to dispersed suburban areas. This project will study the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

The Politics of Congestion Pricing: Case Studies of Two California Projects
Martin Wachs

Congestion pricing, a strategy for travel demand management, is popular among scholars and federal officials but remains very controversial in local and state political arenas. To better understand the political influences on congestion pricing, we will study two California congestion pricing projects: State Route 91 congestion pricing lanes, which have been successfully implemented since late 1995, and the San Francisco Bay Bridge Congestion Pricing Project, which remains stalled for complex political reasons. Through the case studies we hope to identify factors that are critical for successful congestion pricing projects in light of California's politics.

Dissertation Research

New Horizons in Incident Detection Algorithms Using Advanced Neural Networks
Baher Abdulhai
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

The purpose of this study is to develop advanced algorithms for freeway incident detection, utilizing state of the art neural networks. A new prototype for a potentially universal algorithm has been developed and its transferability is being investigated. The new algorithm has the potential to learn the statistics of traffic patterns in real time. It also possesses all the in-house-defined attributes of a universal incident detection algorithm.

A Traffic Movement Identification Scheme Based on Catastrophe Theory and Development of a Microscopic Traffic Simulation Model for Catastrophe in Traffic
Seungmin Kang
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine

Traffic prediction models using time series analysis with time-varying coefficients and on-line lag order determination have been developed for the normal noise distribution. Tracking the values of the coefficients is believed to show the traffic transition from and to traffic congestion, and thus help to detect the occurrence of catastrophe in traffic and even the difference in traffic catastrophe under recurrent and non-recurrent traffic conditions. The time series model has been applied to analyze the difference in traffic movement under recurrent and non-recurrent traffic conditions.

Where do People Walk? The Impacts of Neighborhood Differences in Urban Form on Pedestrian Activity
Juliet Lamont
Environmental Planning, University of California, Berkeley

The New Urbanists argue for urban design that increases pedestrian activity to simultaneously reduce adverse impacts of the automobile while stimulating greater public interaction and encourage a higher quality of life. But is there a basis for their claim that increased pedestrian activity will lead ultimately to a higher quality of life? This research examines interactions of urban design and pedestrian activity, using regional data analysis and neighborhood case studies, to evaluate that claim. Both qualitative and quantitative analytic approaches are employed to capture the complexity of urban form variables and their inter-relations; variables are analyzed across a range of scales to avoid a common methodological weakness of previous research in this area. The aim is to identify which variables are critical in the design of more livable urban neighborhoods, and to serve as a potential prototype for a much larger sample of neighborhoods nationwide.

A Real-Time Distributed Software Architecture for a Seamless Transportation Management and Information System
Filippo Logi
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine

This research develops a hierarchical system composed of three interacting agents for the management and control of the freeway, the surface street, and the public transportation component of a street network. The system is coordinated by a central module whose tasks include the integration of the solution strategies proposed by the agents and the resolution of conflicts that may arise. Each agent builds upon an existing prototype for freeway and surface street incident management, and makes use of knowledge-based as well as optimization-based algorithms for the formulation of suitable strategies and their translation into optimal or near-optimal synergistic control measures.

Living with Uncertainty: A Method for Using Travel and Emissions Models for Policy Analysis
Caroline J. Rodier
Environmental Studies, University of California, Davis

It is well known that both travel demand and emissions models are inaccurate due to multiple sources of error, and that these models are rarely subjected to rigorous tests of this error. This project identifies methods documented in the literature and then applies these methods to the Sacramento regional travel demand model to examine how model errors affect the ranking of alternatives and to asses the model's ability to predict significant differences among policy alternatives.

Impact of Highway and Light Rail Systems on Office and Industrial Rents in the San Diego Region
Sherry Ryan
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine

This dissertation evaluates the impact of access to highway and light rail systems on industrial and office rental rates in the San Diego Region. Hedonic regression analysis is used to analyze the price effect of accessibility to transportation systems while controlling for building and neighborhood characteristics. The analysis is based on nine years of property data (1986-1994). Descriptive analysis of the study area is also performed over the period 1970-1990, including an analysis of changes in population, employment levels, and other variables available from census data.

Development of a Policy Model for Assessing the Impacts of Innovation and Other Market Forces on Transportation Systems, with an Application to "Smart Paratransit"
Susan A. Shaheen
Ecology, University of California, Davis

This dissertation examines travel behavior and innovation in a case study of electric station cars in the Bay Area. Effects on mode choice, emissions, and land use are considered.

Development of a Fuel-Based Approach to Calculating Motor Vehicle Emission Inventories
Brett Singer
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley

Remote sensing measurements are used to calculate fuel-normalized CO emission factors for the on-road vehicle fleet; the emission factors are combined with fuel consumption data to calculate an inventory of stabilized CO emissions. Infrared remote sensor measurements of hydrocarbon emissions are similarly used. The speciated hydrocarbon emissions profile measured at the Caldecott tunnel in 1996 was used to predict an average response factor for a remote sensor measuring a fleet of California on-road vehicles using reformulated gasoline.

Land Use Impact of Rapid Transit: Policies, Markets and Design
Kaveh V. Vessali
City and Regional Planning, University of California, Berkeley

This research seeks: 1) to estimate the property value impacts of rail transit on residential and commercial property using hedonic price models, and 2) to estimate the likelihood of different types of development activity occurring on a given parcel of land or around a given transit station, again as a function of the above factors, using logit probability models.

The Effect of Transportation on Land Use Change in U.S. Metropolitan Regions
Ming Zhang
Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley

This dissertation investigates the contribution of transportation to the spatial pattern of land use changes in two major U.S. metropolitan regions - the San Francisco Bay Area and the Greater Boston Region. Using observed land use data, empirical models of land use change are developed for multiple periods since WWII. The model yields results about the impact of various transportation accessibility measures on land use changes, as well as the effect of numerous non-transport factors, especially local public policy factors.